[fvc-wat-disc] Fw: It's all about vote splitting, folks!
Bob Jonkman
bjonkman at sobac.com
Wed May 11 23:34:43 EDT 2011
That's some interesting information there.
I'm forwarding this to the FVC-WRC Discussion list, as this is likely to
generate some discussion.
Thanx, Keith!
--Bob.
On 2011-05-11 at 23:33:24 Keith PARKINSON wrote:
> Bob,
>
> This is very interesting reading and, I think, promotes the need for PR, in my view without it we are lost.
>
> What do people think about the PR referendum vote in the UK 60% of the voters voted against it.
>
> Take care
>
> Keith
>
>
> From: Grant Orchard
> Sent: Tuesday, May 10, 2011 10:10 PM
> To: Friends of David Orchard
> Subject: It's all about vote splitting, folks!
>
>
> Dear Friends,
>
> It was bound to happen: the "Conservatives" (misnamed "Tories" after their forced and highly undemocratic takeover of the Progressive Conservatives in 2003) won the majority they had been determined to get ever since they were first elected in 2006 - but it was delivered to them on a platter by the split vote between Liberals, NDP and often the Greens, which allowed them to come up in the middle and claim victory.
>
> Harper's party took 167 seats.
>
> Take a look at how he got a big chunk of them:
>
> There were 26 Liberal incumbents who lost their seats to the Cons becaue of the vote split. Without that split Harper would have received 141 seats.
>
> In addition to the ridings where Liberal incumbents lost, there were 21 ridings where a 2- and 3-way split handed the seat to Harper. Without it the Cons would have received 120 seats in all and would not today have their dangerous majority.
>
> (In Quebec, only ONE Con, Maxime Bernier, had a nip-and-tuck majority, whereas the other 4 seats were gained because of a 4-way split, Bloc now included. If we add these seats to the above, the total for Harper would have been 116!)
>
> A more detailed analysis of vote splitting was done by Matt Peters and Ryan Boldt at http://www.facebook.com/notes/matt-peters/6201-reasons-to-get-frustrated/2023546634352
> for which they deserve our thanks.
>
> They write:
>
> Matt Peters and Ryan Boldt decided to dust off their calculators this afternoon and do some 'rithmatic. They were appalled at what they discovered. Time for some sobering statistics. You might want to prepare a barf bag:
>
> a.. 6,201. Friends, this is not the title of the newest Rush album. This is a number we need to remember over the course of the next four years and especially during the next election. 6,201 is the COMBINED margin of victory across the 14 most closely contested Conservative ridings in Canada. The COMBINED margin of victory. This is how close the election actually was. In each of these races the Conservatives had a margin of victory of less than 800 votes. Most margins were much, much smaller. See below for a statistical breakdown.
> a.. 14. You need to remember this number for two reasons. Firstly, it is the number of seats the Conservatives currently have above and beyond their majority. In these 14 contentious races, if there had been even a slightly more focused effort by the parties on the Left to consolidate their voter bases we could have easily swayed the balance of power away from the Conservatives and prevented their majority (only 6,201 votes total were needed, spread across 14 ridings). 14 is also significant because, if you can believe it, 14 votes was the actual margin of victory for the Conservatives over the Liberals in the eastern Ontario riding of Nipissing-Timiskaming. In this riding 11,357 people voted for the NDP or the Green party. 27,887 registered electors didn't vote at all. Only 14 votes were needed to defeat the Conservatives. Let that sink in.
>
>
> Here are the numbers in each of the 14 most closely contested Conservative ridings. The vote splitting is very disturbing:
>
>
>
>
>
> Riding : Labrador (Newfoundland& Labrador)
>
>
>
> Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
>
> 4,234 4,003 231 2,235
>
>
>
>
>
> Nipissing-Timiskaming (Ontario)
>
>
>
> Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
>
> 15,507 15,493 14 11,357
>
>
>
>
>
> Bramalea-Gore-Malton (Ontario)
>
>
> Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green Combined
>
> 19,907 19,369 538 18,149
>
>
>
>
>
> Etobicoke Centre (Ontario)
>
>
> Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
>
> 21,661 21,635 26 9,185
>
>
>
>
>
> Saskatoon Rosetwon biggar (Saskatchewan)
>
>
> Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green Combined
>
> 14,652 14,114 538 1,323
>
>
>
>
>
> Elmwood-Transcona (Manitoba)
>
>
> Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green Combined
>
> 15,280 14,996 284 2,678
>
>
>
>
>
> Montmagny-L'islet-Kamouraska-Riveire-du-Loup (Quebec)
>
>
> Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green/Bloc Combined
>
> 17,220 17,110 110 14,861
>
>
>
>
>
> Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere (Quebec)
>
>
> Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green/Bloc Combined
>
> 22,460 21,683 777 12,183
>
>
>
>
>
> Don Valley West (Ontario)
>
>
> Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
>
> 22,992 22,353 639 7,983
>
>
>
>
>
> Mississauga East-Cooksville (Ontario)
>
>
> Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
>
> 18,782 18,121 661 9,989
>
>
>
>
>
> Winnipeg South Centre (Manitoba)
>
>
> Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
>
> 15,468 14,772 696 9,332
>
>
>
>
>
> Yukon
>
>
> Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
>
> 5,422 5,290 132 5,345
>
>
>
>
>
> Desenthe-Missinippi-Churchill River (Saskatchewan)
>
>
>
> Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green Combined
>
> 10,504 9,715 789 1,706
>
>
>
>
>
> Palliser (Saskatchewan)
>
>
> Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green Combined
>
> 15,850 15,084 766 2,892
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Total numbers for the 14 ridings
>
>
> Conservatives 2nd place Margin of Victory Rest of the left
>
> 219,939 213,738 6,201 103,873
>
>
>
>
> You'll notice that these ridings are evenly distributed geographically throughout the country and the split affected the NDP and Liberals equally. Also, this list only represents the closest races. This is not a regional issue. It is indicative of what occurred throughout the country.
>
>
>
> Across Canada 7,867,870 people voted Liberal, NDP or Green. 5,832,401 voted Conservative. This is a difference of over 2 million votes. Do not believe the hype. A government with 39.6% of the popular vote should not have a mandate to drive through fundamental changes in policy.
>
>
>
> The Progressive Conservatives and the Alliance had the wherewithal to "unite the right" in 2003 and it seems that until the Left are able to arrive at a similar compromise or agreement they may very well be doomed to repeatedly collect 60% of the vote and wield 0% of the power.
>
>
>
> 6,201 reasons to get frustrated.
>
>
>
> We can not let this happen again. Get the word out.
>
> ----
>
> The remedy
>
> The remedy to vote split is an electoral coalition beween opposition parties - NOT a
> "merger" but a strategic agreement not to run against each other in a select ridings - as advocated by retired professor John Ryan and David Orchard, candidate in the federal election in 2008. You can read all about "The idea whose time has come" on www.davidorchard.com, where you will find Ryan's "Canada needs a Liberal-NDP-Green coalition" and Orchard's "Coalition move can checkmate Harper," two practical and far-sighted articles from 2008.
>
> ... and a correction
>
> Peters and Boldt are quite wrong about the "uniting the right" which they refer to as "a ... compromise or agreement" between the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform/Alliance. It was no such thing: it was a coup d'etat and takeover, made possible by Peter MacKay's betrayal of the agreement he made and signed with David Orchard, and greatly resisted by PC party members, politically and legally. On our website there is a whole section titled "Opposition to the PC-CA merger" that tells the true story about what actually took place, which is nothing to endorse or emulate.
>
> Marjaleena Repo
> 306-244-9724
>
>
> ===================================
> DAVID ORCHARD CAMPAIGN FOR CANADA
> P.O. Box 1983, Saskatoon, S7K 3S5
> tel: (306) 664-8443 fax: (306) 244-3790
> 1-877-WE STAND (937-8263)
> Toronto: 1-416-778-7027
> Vancouver: 1-604-215-5580
> davidorchard at sasktel.net
> website: www.davidorchard.com
> ===================================================
>
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