[fvc-wat-disc] Elections Ontario does simulation of three differentvoting systems

Tue Oct 18 10:01:52 EDT 2011

Sorry, don't know why I thought it was Elections Ontario doing it, other
than the picture
that came with the story.

Is it possible to get an online survey methodology that would more
accurately simulate
election polling?  That could be powerful.

It would also be interesting to measure how likely people are to actually
vote under
each system.

Kevin.

On Tue, Oct 18, 2011 at 12:14 AM, Anita <lanickerson at b2b2c.ca> wrote:

> **
> Thanks, Kevin! Yes, I was aware of it. Very interesting. The initial
> results of the study are here:
>
> http://www.threeontariovotes.ca/Three%20Ontario%20Votes%20Results.pdf
>
> We've not been helping draw attention to this study, which was promoted
> by mainstream media such as the Star, for different reasons, the main one
> being that the researchers chose to "teach" people about PR using *one
> huge closed party list* as their PR example. This despite the fact that
> this has never been proposed for Canada as it would not work in Canada (we
> need a mixed system with local representatives due to our geography). Then
> they went and used the Netherlands as their example PR country... It's this
> kind of thing that opponents of PR use to scare people - using countries
> such as Italy and Israel and closed lists with no local representatives as
> examples of how "chaotic" and "unaccountable" PR is - rather than Germany or
> Scotland or New Zealand. Their examples have nothing to do with the
> political culture of Canada or the systems being recommended for Canada and
> how they would work (such as the regional open list MMP system recommended
> by the Law Reform Commission).
>
> The other reason I didn't promote it is Fair Vote doesn't support AV -
> another winner take all system that could produce even more disproportionate
> results than we already have. There's a good site out now against AV:
>
> www.no2av.ca
>
> Of course after the results came out I had to look at them! :). Seeing the
> votes and seats split so evenly between the parties when people are given
> the choice to vote with PR, vote their conscience, (about 1/3 for each of
> the major parties and 8 Green), with such a loss of seats for the two major
> parties (and gains for the NDP and Greens) it's not hard to understand why
> the PCs don't want anything to do with reform period, and the Liberals are
> pushing AV. Clearly, different brands of winner-take-all works for those
> parties, not voters.
>
> Of interest was the fact that if people voted via AV the Liberals would
> lose 4% of the first choice popular vote, however, the researchers did not
> show the projected seats under AV. I asked the researcher about this - see
> my email below and her response. She backed up what we know - that AV would
> likely have meant extra seats for the Liberals (giving them a strong
> majority), based on an even smaller percentage of votes than they got under
> First Past the Post, meaning even more disproportionate overall results and
> less representation for voters of other parties.
>
> It would be nice if Fair Vote could do our own simulated election using a
> workable PR model with a good education component, and get the same kind of
> coverage the media gave this study.
>
> Anita
>
> *From:* Anita [mailto:lanickerson at b2b2c.ca]
> *Sent:* Friday, October 14, 2011 11:42 AM
> *To:* lstephe8 at uwo.ca
> *Subject:* Ontario Votes Study******
>
> ** **Hi there. I had a question about the Ontario Votes study. I noticed
> under AV the Liberals would have received 4% less of the popular vote.
> However, they are the party promoting AV. My belief is that even thought
> they would have received less of the overall popular vote, they would have
> picked up more seats in the close races, because they are the second choice
> of NDP and PC voters (and the second choice of many Greens). Is there a
> reason you did not make an attempt at seat results using AV by looking back
> at the close races and applying the AV voter preferences to see if it
> changed the result in those ridings? Do you have any speculation/educated
> guesses about seat results for AV?****
>
>  Thank you very much!****
>
>  Anita Nickerson****
>
>
> Hi Anita,****
>
> We have only completed a preliminary analysis at this time so we don’t have
> any AV results to report.  We hope to work on these in the future.  Your
> intuition of how second place votes might come into play is quite right.
> ****
>
> Thanks for your interest in our study.****
>
> Best,****
>
> Laura Stephenson****
>
> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> [image: Description: tower]****
>
> Laura B. Stephenson****
>
> Associate Professor and Undergraduate Chair, Dept. of Political Science***
> *
>
> Co-director, Political Behaviour Research Group****
>
> University of Western Ontario, London, ON Canada N6A 5C2****
>
> 519-661-2111x85164   lstephe8 at uwo.ca   SKYPE:  lbstephenson****
>
> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> *From:* Anita [mailto:lanickerson at b2b2c.ca]
> *Sent:* Friday, October 14, 2011 11:42 AM
> *To:* lstephe8 at uwo.ca
> *Subject:* Ontario Votes Study****
>
> ** **
>
> Hi there. I had a question about the Ontario Votes study. I noticed under
> AV the Liberals would have received 4% less of the popular vote. However,
> they are the party promoting AV. My belief is that even thought they would
> have received less of the overall popular vote, they would have picked up
> more seats in the close races, because they are the second choice of NDP and
> PC voters (and the second choice of many Greens). Is there a reason you did
> not make an attempt at seat results using AV by looking back at the close
> races and applying the AV voter preferences to see if it changed the result
> in those ridings? Do you have any speculation/educated guesses about seat
> results for AV?****
>
>  ****
>
> Thank you very much!****
>
>  ****
>
> Anita Nickerson****
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> *From:* Kevin Smith <kevedsmith at gmail.com>
> *To:* FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
> *Sent:* Monday, October 17, 2011 10:53 PM
> *Subject:* [fvc-wat-disc] Elections Ontario does simulation of three
> differentvoting systems
>
> Hi folks:
>
> In case you weren't aware (I wasn't), Elections Ontario ran an experiment
> simultaneously
> with the election, asking people to vote under FPTP, AV, and PR.
>
> No surprise -- the voting system DOES affect the outcome!
>
>
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2011/10/11/three-ontario-votes-resuts.html
>
> Kevin.
>
> ------------------------------
>
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