[fvc-wat-disc] What Justin is afraid of

[Eleanor Grant]

I think that young Justin was deeply impressed - even traumatized - by how
much his father was hated in the west.  He thinks he can be a much more
Sensitive Guy than Pierre was, and smooth things over.  He mustn't let
anything louse up what he's delicately trying to build!

When it comes to electoral reform, here's his nightmare scenario: He pushes
through PR and it succeeds in keeping the Cons out in 2019 - then Con
supporters produce calculations showing that with FPTP they would have
won.  The west becomes enraged, says it's a rigged system, and starts
rumbling about secession - and boy how they'll hate Trudeau!  The last
thing he wants is  to be the cause of a ruptured country - he wants to be
the Great Reconciler.

What he hasn't figured out - in his bones - is that that type of Tories
(the bullies who made death threats against Rachel Notley and recently
chanted "lock her up") CANNOT be placated, and he's wasting all his
political capital trying.
Meanwhile the people who *could* have been reconciled - First Nations,
environmentalists, BC, the NDP and Greens, Fair Vote Canada - are falling
away and coming to deeply distrust him.

I don't know what this says about potential strategies for us.  Justin may
be an extreme example of the Achilles heel in Liberal mentality - the
tendency to crumble before the bully pulpits of the right.  I don't know
how we can work with that - but it's clear that doggedly presenting facts
is ineffective when up against deep-seated fear.

Eleanor
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