[fvc-wat-disc] Did you see this CBC item on Google? How would proportional representation have shaped this election’s results? | CBC/Radio-Canada

[Dave Arthur]

Thanks Gordon.
Quite helpful.
I’d like to make a bar graph and perhaps use results from an MMP result with 338 seats.
Dave

Sent from Mail for Windows 10

From: gordon.n gordon.n
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2019 10:39 AM
To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion; Dave Arthur
Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Did you see this CBC item on Google? How would proportional representation have shaped this election’s results? | CBC/Radio-Canada

Hi Dave and other FVC folks
I think the CBC did a good job with the graphics they used but I agree that it lacked detailed information about what would happen in each province
I have worked out the statistics for a MMP Commons based on the following assumptions
1. Retain the current 338 ridings and elect the MP's for those ridings using FPTP
2. Add an additional 83 top up LIST seats that would be allocated proportionally inside each province. I did not use a national allocation because I am of the opinion that would get into constitutional difficulties
3. The expanded Commons of 421 members would require a party to have 212 seats to form a majority government
4. Since the last decade review of seat distribution allowed for an expansion of 30 seats in the Commons, the cost of the introduction of an extra 83 seats to achieve proportional representation could be written off against the next two redistribution exercises.
The data in the attached chart shows that the Liberals would be in first place with 167 seats (39.6% of seats versus a vote count of 39.5%) and the Conservatives second with 145 seats(34.4% of seats vs a vote count of 31.9%). Although not perfect this result is close to the vote count
The major gains are for the NDP and the Greens
Note that at the provincial level the following changes would occur
• the Liberals would go from 0 to  6 seats in Alberta & Saskatchewan
• the NDP would go from 1 to 6 seats in Alberta 7 Saskatchewan
• the Greens would go from 2 to 7 seats in BC, 0 to 5 seats in Ontario and 0 to 4 seats in Quebec
• the Conservatives would go from 4 to 10 seats in the four Maritime provinces
As you know, I personally advocate for an MMPP system that would replace FPTP with a Second Choice Preferential system for the riding voting. If this were done there would be some minor changes to the attached chart that I have not had the time to work out.
I hope these statistics answer the question you put even though I have not presented them in bar graph format
Gordon Nicholls
---------- Original Message ---------- 
From: Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net> 
Date: October 25, 2019 at 3:59 PM 
I would like to see a similar comparison including a breakdown by province.
I believe it would show that the east and west is not as divided and polarized as the FPTP results suggest.
We need this kind of more accurate picture at this time when the media are magnifying the east-west divide.
So far I have had difficulty finding popular vote numbers by province without using all 338 riding results.
A bar graph by province using party colours would be best as a pie graph for each province would take too much space.
Any takers?
Dave A
 
Sent from Mail for Windows 10
 
From: STUART CHANDLER
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2019 8:50 AM
To: Sharon Sommerville
Subject: [fvc-wat-disc] Did you see this CBC item on Google? How would proportional representation have shaped this election’s results? | CBC/Radio-Canada
 
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2019/elections-federales/mode-scrutin-proportionnelle-mixte-compensatoire/index-en.html
 

 
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