[fvc-wat-disc] Opportunity for letters

[Anita Nickerson]

https://www.therecord.com/opinion/contributors/2021/09/14/why-lamenting-the-broken-electoral-reform-promise-is-a-waste-of-energy.html
Why lamenting the broken electoral reform promise is a waste of energyJÖRG
BROSCHEK SEPTEMBER 14, 2021

Progressive voters’ frustration with the Trudeau Liberals is at least as
much about public policy as it is about politics. At the heart of this
disappointment lies the broken promise of electoral reform. But lamenting
the absence of electoral reform not only ignores current political
realities. It is also far from clear whether replacing our
first-past-the-post (FPTP) system with some type of proportional
representation (PR) is a necessary condition for meaningful policy change
and a more authentic form of democratic governance.

Perhaps nowhere is it possible to sense this resentment better than in
Kitchener Centre, also home of the newly founded Electoral Reform Party.
Despite its rapidly growing urban constituency, the Conservatives may be
able to flip the riding for the first time since 2011. Even after the
Liberal incumbent’s unexpected resignation on Sept. 5, the progressive vote
remains split between two strong, programmatically largely overlapping NDP
and Green candidates.

As a voter, I tend to favour PR over FPTP for various reasons. The most
important one is certainly confidence that my vote will somehow count. As a
political scientist, however, I am wary. First, FPTP in Canada is deeply
entrenched. Numerous failed reforms on the provincial level and the
political realities on the federal level suggest that it is here to stay.
Second, electoral systems are not purely technocratic mechanisms that
translate votes into mandates. The performance of any electoral system
depends on contextual conditions, rather than on successful institutional
engineering.

Look at Germany. When German voters head to the polls on Sept. 26, they
will choose a new government through a PR system with a blend of FPTP. Each
ballot consists of two votes. The second vote is the important one: It
determines proportionally the share of all mandates for each party that
passes the five per cent threshold in the Bundestag. The first vote
allocates about 50 per cent of these seats among candidates who won a
simple majority in their local riding.

This electoral system has increasingly generated problems PR advocates in
Canada should consider.

For example, PR does not discourage strategic voting. Split ticket voting
in Germany has never been more prevalent than in the last federal election
in 2017: About 27 per cent of voters supported different political parties
with their first and second vote. Party system fragmentation has reinforced
this trend. And as more voters use their second vote to express their
preference (or disregard) for certain anticipated coalition scenarios, the
formation of effective coalition governments itself becomes more difficult.
And leader debates are almost as much about potential party coalitions as
they are about platforms.

Moreover, PR has hampered the creation of inclusive and innovative
governments. Except for the second Merkel government (2009-2013), Germany
has been governed by a grand coalition between the Christian Democrats and
the Social Democrats since 2005. Grand coalitions are not only prone to
muddling-through politics and lowest common denominator decisions. They
have also cemented the impression of a cartelization of politics among many
voters.

While this has fuelled support for the right-wing populist Alternative für
Deutschland (AfD), PR enabled the party’s consolidation in parliaments. PR
is blind toward political ideologies. It can strengthen third parties
regardless of their political colour. In Germany, it allowed the AfD to
establish itself in 15 sub-federal parliaments since 2014 before entering
the Bundestag in 2017.

Against this backdrop, the status quo in Canada doesn’t look so bad. We may
be witnessing another episode of minority governments, which tend to work
better than coalition governments in Germany. They can be quite innovative
(e.g. Pearson 1963-1968), and it’s easier to hold them accountable. What is
more, progressive PR advocates should take into account the realistic
scenario of a strengthened People’s Party of Canada which, bolstered by PR,
could end up holding the balance of power in the House.

Rather than lamenting, political leaders need to focus on strategies to
challenge established hegemonies from within. FPTP can empower local
candidates. In the 2019 election, Kitchener Centre Green candidate Mike
Morrice came in second, increasing the Green vote from three per cent to 26
per cent. And there is a good chance he will be sent to Ottawa on Sept. 20.

Jörg Broschek is associate professor and Canada Research Chair (Tier 2) in
comparative federalism and multilevel governance in the Department of
Political Science at Wilfrid Laurier University.
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