<div dir="ltr">Evan, this is fabulous. How quickly do you think you could do a similar efficiency model from the actual election results?<br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:31 PM, Evan Rosamond <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:erosamond@worldline.ca" target="_blank">erosamond@worldline.ca</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div text="#000000" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<div class="m_2881040747557350560moz-cite-prefix">Sharon, you are right about Erin
Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think she's got a lot of
virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large computer),
but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's
forecasts seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so
maybe there's some accuracy there.<br>
<br>
Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I
find the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results
are OK because of something virtuous that the parties have done.
There is no truth to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency
using numbers from Grenier's poll tracker this afternoon.<br>
<br>
<table frame="VOID" cols="5" rules="NONE" cellspacing="0" border="0">
<colgroup><col width="56"><col width="106"><col width="136"><col width="121"><col width="120"></colgroup> <tbody>
<tr>
<td width="56" height="17" align="LEFT"><u>Party</u></td>
<td width="106" align="RIGHT"><u>Popular Vote </u></td>
<td width="136" align="RIGHT"><u>Proportional Seats</u></td>
<td width="121" align="RIGHT"><u>Projected Seats</u></td>
<td width="120" align="RIGHT"><u>Power of a Vote</u></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="17" align="LEFT">NDP</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.361</td>
<td align="RIGHT">45</td>
<td align="RIGHT">48<br>
</td>
<td align="RIGHT">1.067</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="17" align="LEFT">PC</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.376</td>
<td align="RIGHT">47</td>
<td align="RIGHT">74</td>
<td align="RIGHT">1.574</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="17" align="LEFT">Lib</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.199</td>
<td align="RIGHT">25</td>
<td align="RIGHT">2<br>
</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.080</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="18" align="LEFT">Grn</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.050</td>
<td align="RIGHT">6</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="18" align="LEFT">Oth</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.014</td>
<td align="RIGHT">2</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="17" align="LEFT"><br>
</td>
<td align="RIGHT">1.000</td>
<td align="RIGHT">124</td>
<td align="RIGHT">124</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br>
The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats
to Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a
single vote for each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus.
This is said to be efficient because PC votes are spread across
the province fairly evenly. But look at the Liberals. They also
have spread out votes, but 92% of them won't count.<span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><br>
<br>
Evan</font></span><div><div class="h5"><br>
<br>
<br>
On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:<br>
</div></div></div><div><div class="h5">
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly
enlightening & discouraging. If this election produces a
"Wrong winner" government, some people will begin to understand
that the electoral system delivered the Ford win, not the
voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be helpful for
some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
necessity.
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect
Ford's support in the last 6 days of the election; could
Renate Ford's lawsuit be that issue? Perhaps in combination
with the PC candidate who is being accused of threatening 19
Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
straws? </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how
<span id="m_2881040747557350560:zj.10">Poli</span>
works and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in
recent elections? Traditional polls have proven themselves to
be unreliable of late.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Hopefully yours,</div>
<div>Sharon</div>
</div>
<div class="gmail_extra"><br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor
Grant <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:eleanor7000@gmail.com" target="_blank">eleanor7000@gmail.com</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="auto">
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">Hello Fair
Voters: </div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">Have you
been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda?
She claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote,
there will still be a Ford majority of 20 seats because
of the efficiency of the PC vote. People aren't grasping
this! </div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">See if
this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve
Paikin:</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"> <a href="https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1" style="text-decoration:none;color:rgb(66,133,244)" target="_blank">https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1</a>
<div dir="auto">It's a must-see. </div>
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto">I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will
feel Friday morning if NDP is solidly ahead in popular
vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs. </div>
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto">NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of
PCs to win. Why we need PR. </div>
<span class="m_2881040747557350560HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto">Eleanor </div>
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
</font></span></div>
</div>
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</blockquote>
</div>
<br>
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<br></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br><div class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:10px;background-color:transparent;font-style:normal"><span><font color="#888888"><font size="1"><span style="font-family:tahoma,new york,times,serif"><span style="line-height:10.909090995788574px">No other Western democratic country concentrates as much political power </span></span></font><font size="1"><span style="font-family:tahoma,new york,times,serif"><span style="line-height:10.909090995788574px">in the hands of one person as Canada does with her Prime Minister. </span></span></font></font></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
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