<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body dir="auto"><div></div><div>Us professor Byron Weber Becker is the electoral statistics expert the federal government immortalized at the back of its report.</div><div><br>On Jun 7, 2018, at 8:11 AM, Sharon Sommerville <<a href="mailto:sharonsommerville@gmail.com">sharonsommerville@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type="cite"><div><div dir="ltr">Thank you Eleanor. I will look for it and send the link around if it is found.<div><br></div><div><br></div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Wed, Jun 6, 2018 at 9:39 PM, Eleanor Grant <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:eleanor7000@gmail.com" target="_blank">eleanor7000@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto">Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford: <div dir="auto">Sharon, there was an earlier interview with Erin Kelly on The Agenda, in which she explained Polly's methodology and past success in predicting Trudeau, Brexit, and Trump. </div><div dir="auto">If you guys are better at Google searching than I am, maybe you can find it. It was very revealing. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Eleanor </div><div dir="auto"><br></div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On 6 Jun 2018 08:58, <<a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc-request@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc-request@<wbr>listserv.thinkers.org</a>> wrote:<br type="attribution"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">Send fvc-wat-disc mailing list submissions to<br>
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<br>Today's Topics:<br>
<br>
1. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Catherine Campbell)<br>
2. Fwd: Rob Ford?s widow sues Doug Ford, alleging he has<br>
deprived her and her children of millions | The Star<br>
(Catherine Campbell)<br>
3. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Dave Arthur)<br>
4. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Kevin Smith)<br>
5. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Jennifer Ross)<br>
6. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Anita Nickerson)<br>
7. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Dave Arthur)<br>
<br><br>---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: Catherine Campbell <<a href="mailto:cdcampbell9@gmail.com" target="_blank">cdcampbell9@gmail.com</a>><br>To: David dirks <<a href="mailto:daviddirks@rogers.com" target="_blank">daviddirks@rogers.com</a>>, FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <<a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.<wbr>thinkers.org</a>><br>Cc: <br>Bcc: <br>Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 15:32:00 -0400<br>Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford<br><div dir="auto"><div></div><div>Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t remember the PC percent of the popular vote. </div><div><br>On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <<a href="mailto:daviddirks@rogers.com" target="_blank">daviddirks@rogers.com</a>> wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type="cite"><div><div style="color:#000;background-color:#fff;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,Lucida Grande,sans-serif;font-size:13px"><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_18924"><span id="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_18975">On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR, speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may be able to move the needle in the future.</span></div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_19005"><span id="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_18975"><br></span></div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_19006"><span id="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_18975">David</span></div> <div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278qtdSeparateBR"><br><br></div><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yahoo_quoted" style="display:block"> <div style="font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,Lucida Grande,sans-serif;font-size:13px"> <div style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,Lucida Grande,sans-serif;font-size:16px"> <div dir="ltr"><font size="2" face="Arial"> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <<a href="mailto:judkowitz@gmail.com" target="_blank">judkowitz@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></font></div> <br><br> <div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278y_msg_container"><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yiv1664290230"><div><div dir="ltr">This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20% of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a motivation for change.</div><br clear="none"><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yiv1664290230gmail_quote"><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yiv1664290230yqt4672620461" id="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yiv1664290230yqt29885"><div dir="ltr">On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <<a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:erosamond@worldline.ca" target="_blank">erosamond@worldline.ca</a>> wrote:<br clear="none"></div><blockquote class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yiv1664290230gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yiv1664290230m_-6109203278335916828moz-cite-prefix">Sharon, you are right about Erin
Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think she's got a lot of
virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large computer),
but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's
forecasts seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so
maybe there's some accuracy there.<br clear="none">
<br clear="none">
Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I
find the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results
are OK because of something virtuous that the parties have done.
There is no truth to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency
using numbers from Grenier's poll tracker this afternoon.<br clear="none">
<br clear="none">
<table class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yahoo-compose-table-card" cellspacing="0" border="0"><colgroup span="1"><col width="56" span="1"><col width="106" span="1"><col width="136" span="1"><col width="121" span="1"><col width="120" span="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="56" height="17" align="LEFT"><u>Party</u></td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="106" align="RIGHT"><u>Popular Vote </u></td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="136" align="RIGHT"><u>Proportional Seats</u></td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="121" align="RIGHT"><u>Projected Seats</u></td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="120" align="RIGHT"><u>Power of a Vote</u></td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="17" align="LEFT">NDP</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.361</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">45</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">48<br clear="none">
</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">1.067</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="17" align="LEFT">PC</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.376</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">47</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">74</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">1.574</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="17" align="LEFT">Lib</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.199</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">25</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">2<br clear="none">
</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.080</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="18" align="LEFT">Grn</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.050</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">6</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.000</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="18" align="LEFT">Oth</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.014</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">2</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.000</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="17" align="LEFT"><br clear="none">
</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">1.000</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">124</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">124</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="LEFT"><br clear="none">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
<br clear="none">
The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats
to Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a
single vote for each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus.
This is said to be efficient because PC votes are spread across
the province fairly evenly. But look at the Liberals. They also
have spread out votes, but 92% of them won't count.<br clear="none">
<br clear="none">
Evan<br clear="none">
<br clear="none">
<br clear="none">
On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:<br clear="none">
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly
enlightening & discouraging. If this election produces a
"Wrong winner" government, some people will begin to understand
that the electoral system delivered the Ford win, not the
voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be helpful for
some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
necessity.
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect
Ford's support in the last 6 days of the election; could
Renate Ford's lawsuit be that issue? Perhaps in combination
with the PC candidate who is being accused of threatening 19
Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
straws? </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how
<span id="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yiv1664290230m_-6109203278335916828:zj.10">Poli</span>
works and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in
recent elections? Traditional polls have proven themselves to
be unreliable of late.</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Hopefully yours,</div>
<div>Sharon</div>
</div>
<div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yiv1664290230gmail_extra"><br clear="none">
<div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yiv1664290230gmail_quote">On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor
Grant <span dir="ltr"><<a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="mailto:eleanor7000@gmail.com" target="_blank">eleanor7000@gmail.com</a>></span>
wrote:<br clear="none">
<blockquote class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yiv1664290230gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">Hello Fair
Voters: </div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"><br clear="none">
</div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">Have you
been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda?
She claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote,
there will still be a Ford majority of 20 seats because
of the efficiency of the PC vote. People aren't grasping
this! </div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"><br clear="none">
</div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">See if
this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve
Paikin:</div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"> <a rel="nofollow" shape="rect" href="https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1" style="text-decoration:none;color:rgb(66,133,244)" target="_blank">https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1</a>
<div>It's a must-see. </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will
feel Friday morning if NDP is solidly ahead in popular
vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs. </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of
PCs to win. Why we need PR. </div>
<span class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yiv1664290230m_-6109203278335916828HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">
</font></span><div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Eleanor </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
</div>
</div>
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</blockquote></div></div></div></div><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yqt4672620461" id="m_-885241454435986959m_-9143996336228403278yqt69107">______________________________<wbr>_________________<br clear="none">This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<br clear="none">Post a message: <a shape="rect" href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a><br clear="none">Unsubscribe: <a shape="rect" href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a><br clear="none"></div><br><br></div> </div> </div> </div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote type="cite"><div><span>______________________________<wbr>_________________</span><br><span>This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list</span><br><span>Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a></span><br><span>Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a></span><br></div></blockquote></div><br><br>---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: Catherine Campbell <<a href="mailto:cdcampbell9@gmail.com" target="_blank">cdcampbell9@gmail.com</a>><br>To: "Fair Vote Canada FV: Anita Nickerson" <<a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.<wbr>thinkers.org</a>><br>Cc: <br>Bcc: <br>Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 15:32:38 -0400<br>Subject: [fvc-wat-disc] Fwd: Rob Ford’s widow sues Doug Ford, alleging he has deprived her and her children of millions | The Star<br><div dir="auto"><div></div><div><br><br><br>Begin forwarded message:<br><br></div><blockquote type="cite"><div><b>From:</b> Catherine Campbell <<a href="mailto:cdcampbell9@gmail.com" target="_blank">cdcampbell9@gmail.com</a>><br><b>Date:</b> June 4, 2018 at 9:42:17 PM EDT<br><b>To:</b> Sharon Sommerville <<a href="mailto:sharonsommerville@gmail.com" target="_blank">sharonsommerville@gmail.com</a>>, Jenn Ross <<a href="mailto:jenn@jenniferross.ca" target="_blank">jenn@jenniferross.ca</a>>, Cathy MacLellan <<a href="mailto:cathymaclellan@me.com" target="_blank">cathymaclellan@me.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> <b>Rob Ford’s widow sues Doug Ford, alleging he has deprived her and her children of millions | The Star</b><br><br></div></blockquote><blockquote type="cite"><div><span>I thought you might be interested in this story from the Toronto Star. <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/04/rob-fords-widow-sues-doug-ford-alleging-he-has-deprived-them-of-millions.html" target="_blank">https://www.thestar.com/news/c<wbr>anada/2018/06/04/rob-fords-wid<wbr>ow-sues-doug-ford-alleging-he-<wbr>has-deprived-them-of-millions.<wbr>html</a></span><br></div></blockquote></div><br><br>---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: Dave Arthur <<a href="mailto:arthurd23@bell.net" target="_blank">arthurd23@bell.net</a>><br>To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <<a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.<wbr>thinkers.org</a>>, David dirks <<a href="mailto:daviddirks@rogers.com" target="_blank">daviddirks@rogers.com</a>><br>Cc: <br>Bcc: <br>Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 15:36:35 -0400<br>Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford<br><div lang="EN-US" link="blue" vlink="#954F72"><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-8590995676814406464WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal">I think a good project would be to look back at federal and provincial elections and dig out the most distorted vote % / seat % examples there have ever been.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Maybe I’ll take that on.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Dave A</p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Sent from <a href="https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986" target="_blank">Mail</a> for Windows 10</p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div style="border:none;border-top:solid #e1e1e1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in"><p class="MsoNormal" style="border:none;padding:0in"><b>From: </b><a href="mailto:cdcampbell9@gmail.com" target="_blank">Catherine Campbell</a><br><b>Sent: </b>Tuesday, June 5, 2018 3:32 PM<br><b>To: </b><a href="mailto:daviddirks@rogers.com" target="_blank">David dirks</a>; <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">FVC Waterloo Region Discussion</a><br><b>Subject: </b>Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford</p></div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t remember the PC percent of the popular vote. <u></u><u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><br>On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <<a href="mailto:daviddirks@rogers.com" target="_blank">daviddirks@rogers.com</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></p></div><blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt"><div><div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-8590995676814406464yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_18924"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR, speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may be able to move the needle in the future.<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-8590995676814406464yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_19005"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><br><br><u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-8590995676814406464yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_19006"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">David<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><div><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <<a href="mailto:judkowitz@gmail.com" target="_blank">judkowitz@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u><u></u></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-8590995676814406464yiv1664290230"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20% of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a motivation for change.<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-8590995676814406464yiv1664290230yqt29885"><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <<a href="mailto:erosamond@worldline.ca" target="_blank">erosamond@worldline.ca</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some accuracy there.<br><br>Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll tracker this afternoon.<u></u><u></u></span></p><table class="m_-885241454435986959m_-8590995676814406464MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td width="56" style="width:42.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal"><u>Party</u><u></u><u></u></p></td><td width="106" style="width:79.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Popular Vote </u><u></u><u></u></p></td><td width="136" style="width:102.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Proportional Seats</u><u></u><u></u></p></td><td width="121" style="width:90.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Projected Seats</u><u></u><u></u></p></td><td width="120" style="width:1.25in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Power of a Vote</u><u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal">NDP<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.361<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">45<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">48<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">1.067<u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal">PC<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.376<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">47<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">74<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">1.574<u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal">Lib<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.199<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">25<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">2<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.080<u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:13.5pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal">Grn<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.050<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">6<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.000<u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:13.5pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal">Oth<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.014<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">2<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.000<u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">1.000<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">124<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">124<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><br>The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly. But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them won't count.<br><br>Evan<br><br><br>On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt"><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening & discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important necessity. <u></u><u></u></span></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at straws? <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections? Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Hopefully yours,<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Sharon<u></u><u></u></span></p></div></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <<a href="mailto:eleanor7000@gmail.com" target="_blank">eleanor7000@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></span></p><blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Hello Fair Voters: <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People aren't grasping this! <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> <a href="https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1" target="_blank"><span style="color:#4285f4">https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1</span></a> <u></u><u></u></span></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">It's a must-see. <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs. <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR. <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Eleanor <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><br>______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<br>Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a><br>Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u><u></u></span></p></blockquote></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><br><br><u></u><u></u></span></p><pre style="background:white"><span style="color:black">______________________________<wbr>_________________<u></u><u></u></span></pre><pre style="background:white"><span style="color:black">This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<u></u><u></u></span></pre><pre style="background:white"><span style="color:black">Post a message: <a 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style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right:.5in;margin-bottom:5.0pt;margin-left:.5in">______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<br>Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a><br>Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p></div></div><br><br>---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: Kevin Smith <<a href="mailto:kevedsmith@gmail.com" target="_blank">kevedsmith@gmail.com</a>><br>To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <<a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.<wbr>thinkers.org</a>><br>Cc: <br>Bcc: <br>Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 17:15:37 -0400<br>Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford<br><div dir="auto">For PCs in 1993, it was 2 seats and 18% of the vote. Jean Charest and Elsie Wayne were the two.<div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">That same election, Ontario was solidly Liberal because of PC and Reform splitting the vote. BQ became official opposition with over 50 seats, and a small vote percentage. Reform was just behind them. Their vote was still concentrated in the West.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Kevin</div><div dir="auto"><br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr">On Tue, Jun 5, 2018, 3:32 PM Catherine Campbell, <<a href="mailto:cdcampbell9@gmail.com" target="_blank">cdcampbell9@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto"><div></div><div>Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t remember the PC percent of the popular vote. </div><div><br>On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <<a href="mailto:daviddirks@rogers.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">daviddirks@rogers.com</a>> wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type="cite"><div><div style="color:#000;background-color:#fff;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,Lucida Grande,sans-serif;font-size:13px"><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_18924"><span id="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_18975">On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR, speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may be able to move the needle in the future.</span></div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_19005"><span id="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_18975"><br></span></div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_19006"><span id="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_18975">David</span></div> <div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049qtdSeparateBR"><br><br></div><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yahoo_quoted" style="display:block"> <div style="font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,Lucida Grande,sans-serif;font-size:13px"> <div style="font-family:HelveticaNeue,Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,Lucida Grande,sans-serif;font-size:16px"> <div dir="ltr"><font size="2" face="Arial"> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <<a href="mailto:judkowitz@gmail.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">judkowitz@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></font></div> <br><br> <div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049y_msg_container"><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yiv1664290230"><div><div dir="ltr">This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20% of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a motivation for change.</div><br clear="none"><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yiv1664290230gmail_quote"><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yiv1664290230yqt4672620461" id="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yiv1664290230yqt29885"><div dir="ltr">On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <<a rel="nofollow noreferrer" shape="rect" href="mailto:erosamond@worldline.ca" target="_blank">erosamond@worldline.ca</a>> wrote:<br clear="none"></div><blockquote class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yiv1664290230gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yiv1664290230m_-6109203278335916828moz-cite-prefix">Sharon, you are right about Erin
Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think she's got a lot of
virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large computer),
but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's
forecasts seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so
maybe there's some accuracy there.<br clear="none">
<br clear="none">
Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I
find the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results
are OK because of something virtuous that the parties have done.
There is no truth to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency
using numbers from Grenier's poll tracker this afternoon.<br clear="none">
<br clear="none">
<table class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yahoo-compose-table-card" cellspacing="0" border="0"><colgroup span="1"><col width="56" span="1"><col width="106" span="1"><col width="136" span="1"><col width="121" span="1"><col width="120" span="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="56" height="17" align="LEFT"><u>Party</u></td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="106" align="RIGHT"><u>Popular Vote </u></td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="136" align="RIGHT"><u>Proportional Seats</u></td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="121" align="RIGHT"><u>Projected Seats</u></td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="120" align="RIGHT"><u>Power of a Vote</u></td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="17" align="LEFT">NDP</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.361</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">45</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">48<br clear="none">
</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">1.067</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="17" align="LEFT">PC</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.376</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">47</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">74</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">1.574</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="17" align="LEFT">Lib</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.199</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">25</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">2<br clear="none">
</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.080</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="18" align="LEFT">Grn</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.050</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">6</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.000</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="18" align="LEFT">Oth</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.014</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">2</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">0.000</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" height="17" align="LEFT"><br clear="none">
</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">1.000</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">124</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="RIGHT">124</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="LEFT"><br clear="none">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
<br clear="none">
The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats
to Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a
single vote for each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus.
This is said to be efficient because PC votes are spread across
the province fairly evenly. But look at the Liberals. They also
have spread out votes, but 92% of them won't count.<br clear="none">
<br clear="none">
Evan<br clear="none">
<br clear="none">
<br clear="none">
On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:<br clear="none">
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly
enlightening & discouraging. If this election produces a
"Wrong winner" government, some people will begin to understand
that the electoral system delivered the Ford win, not the
voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be helpful for
some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
necessity.
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect
Ford's support in the last 6 days of the election; could
Renate Ford's lawsuit be that issue? Perhaps in combination
with the PC candidate who is being accused of threatening 19
Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
straws? </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how
<span id="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yiv1664290230m_-6109203278335916828:zj.10">Poli</span>
works and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in
recent elections? Traditional polls have proven themselves to
be unreliable of late.</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Hopefully yours,</div>
<div>Sharon</div>
</div>
<div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yiv1664290230gmail_extra"><br clear="none">
<div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yiv1664290230gmail_quote">On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor
Grant <span dir="ltr"><<a rel="nofollow noreferrer" shape="rect" href="mailto:eleanor7000@gmail.com" target="_blank">eleanor7000@gmail.com</a>></span>
wrote:<br clear="none">
<blockquote class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yiv1664290230gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">Hello Fair
Voters: </div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"><br clear="none">
</div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">Have you
been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda?
She claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote,
there will still be a Ford majority of 20 seats because
of the efficiency of the PC vote. People aren't grasping
this! </div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"><br clear="none">
</div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">See if
this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve
Paikin:</div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"> <a rel="nofollow noreferrer" shape="rect" href="https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1" style="text-decoration:none;color:rgb(66,133,244)" target="_blank">https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1</a>
<div>It's a must-see. </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will
feel Friday morning if NDP is solidly ahead in popular
vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs. </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of
PCs to win. Why we need PR. </div>
<span class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yiv1664290230m_-6109203278335916828HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">
</font></span><div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Eleanor </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br clear="none">
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</blockquote>
</div>
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</blockquote></div></div></div></div><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yqt4672620461" id="m_-885241454435986959m_-2146232290244533405m_4964686031871421049yqt69107">______________________________<wbr>_________________<br clear="none">This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<br clear="none">Post a message: <a shape="rect" href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a><br clear="none">Unsubscribe: <a shape="rect" href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a><br clear="none"></div><br><br></div> </div> </div> </div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote type="cite"><div><span>______________________________<wbr>_________________</span><br><span>This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list</span><br><span>Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a></span><br><span>Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a></span><br></div></blockquote></div>______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>
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<br><br>---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: Jennifer Ross <<a href="mailto:2jennross@gmail.com" target="_blank">2jennross@gmail.com</a>><br>To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <<a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.<wbr>thinkers.org</a>><br>Cc: <br>Bcc: <br>Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 21:47:55 -0400<br>Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford<br><div dir="ltr">Evan, this is fabulous. How quickly do you think you could do a similar efficiency model from the actual election results?<br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:31 PM, Evan Rosamond <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:erosamond@worldline.ca" target="_blank">erosamond@worldline.ca</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div text="#000000" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-1588607091407908854m_2881040747557350560moz-cite-prefix">Sharon, you are right about Erin
Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think she's got a lot of
virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large computer),
but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's
forecasts seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so
maybe there's some accuracy there.<br>
<br>
Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I
find the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results
are OK because of something virtuous that the parties have done.
There is no truth to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency
using numbers from Grenier's poll tracker this afternoon.<br>
<br>
<table frame="VOID" cols="5" rules="NONE" cellspacing="0" border="0">
<colgroup><col width="56"><col width="106"><col width="136"><col width="121"><col width="120"></colgroup> <tbody>
<tr>
<td width="56" height="17" align="LEFT"><u>Party</u></td>
<td width="106" align="RIGHT"><u>Popular Vote </u></td>
<td width="136" align="RIGHT"><u>Proportional Seats</u></td>
<td width="121" align="RIGHT"><u>Projected Seats</u></td>
<td width="120" align="RIGHT"><u>Power of a Vote</u></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="17" align="LEFT">NDP</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.361</td>
<td align="RIGHT">45</td>
<td align="RIGHT">48<br>
</td>
<td align="RIGHT">1.067</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="17" align="LEFT">PC</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.376</td>
<td align="RIGHT">47</td>
<td align="RIGHT">74</td>
<td align="RIGHT">1.574</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="17" align="LEFT">Lib</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.199</td>
<td align="RIGHT">25</td>
<td align="RIGHT">2<br>
</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.080</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="18" align="LEFT">Grn</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.050</td>
<td align="RIGHT">6</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="18" align="LEFT">Oth</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.014</td>
<td align="RIGHT">2</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0</td>
<td align="RIGHT">0.000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="17" align="LEFT"><br>
</td>
<td align="RIGHT">1.000</td>
<td align="RIGHT">124</td>
<td align="RIGHT">124</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br>
The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats
to Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a
single vote for each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus.
This is said to be efficient because PC votes are spread across
the province fairly evenly. But look at the Liberals. They also
have spread out votes, but 92% of them won't count.<span class="m_-885241454435986959m_-1588607091407908854HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><br>
<br>
Evan</font></span><div><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-1588607091407908854h5"><br>
<br>
<br>
On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:<br>
</div></div></div><div><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-1588607091407908854h5">
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly
enlightening & discouraging. If this election produces a
"Wrong winner" government, some people will begin to understand
that the electoral system delivered the Ford win, not the
voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be helpful for
some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
necessity.
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect
Ford's support in the last 6 days of the election; could
Renate Ford's lawsuit be that issue? Perhaps in combination
with the PC candidate who is being accused of threatening 19
Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
straws? </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how
<span id="m_-885241454435986959m_-1588607091407908854m_2881040747557350560:zj.10">Poli</span>
works and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in
recent elections? Traditional polls have proven themselves to
be unreliable of late.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Hopefully yours,</div>
<div>Sharon</div>
</div>
<div class="gmail_extra"><br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor
Grant <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:eleanor7000@gmail.com" target="_blank">eleanor7000@gmail.com</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="auto">
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">Hello Fair
Voters: </div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">Have you
been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda?
She claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote,
there will still be a Ford majority of 20 seats because
of the efficiency of the PC vote. People aren't grasping
this! </div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px">See if
this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve
Paikin:</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px"> <a href="https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1" style="text-decoration:none;color:rgb(66,133,244)" target="_blank">https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1</a>
<div dir="auto">It's a must-see. </div>
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto">I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will
feel Friday morning if NDP is solidly ahead in popular
vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs. </div>
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto">NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of
PCs to win. Why we need PR. </div>
<span class="m_-885241454435986959m_-1588607091407908854m_2881040747557350560HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto">Eleanor </div>
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
</font></span></div>
</div>
<br>
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<br>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br>
</div>
<br>
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<br>
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<br></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_-1588607091407908854gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:10px;background-color:transparent;font-style:normal"><span><font color="#888888"><font size="1"><span style="font-family:tahoma,new york,times,serif"><span style="line-height:10.909090995788574px">No other Western democratic country concentrates as much political power </span></span></font><font size="1"><span style="font-family:tahoma,new york,times,serif"><span style="line-height:10.909090995788574px">in the hands of one person as Canada does with her Prime Minister. </span></span></font></font></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
</div>
<br><br>---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: Anita Nickerson <<a href="mailto:anitann88@gmail.com" target="_blank">anitann88@gmail.com</a>><br>To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <<a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.<wbr>thinkers.org</a>><br>Cc: <br>Bcc: <br>Date: Wed, 6 Jun 2018 01:01:53 -0400<br>Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford<br><div dir="ltr">We have all the elections results on google drive if you want.</div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 3:36 PM, Dave Arthur <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:arthurd23@bell.net" target="_blank">arthurd23@bell.net</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div lang="EN-US" link="blue" vlink="#954F72"><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_7398994631862018071m_-3217138021903861730WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal">I think a good project would be to look back at federal and provincial elections and dig out the most distorted vote % / seat % examples there have ever been.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Maybe I’ll take that on.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Dave A</p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Sent from <a href="https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986" target="_blank">Mail</a> for Windows 10</p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div style="border:none;border-top:solid #e1e1e1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in"><p class="MsoNormal" style="border:none;padding:0in"><b>From: </b><a href="mailto:cdcampbell9@gmail.com" target="_blank">Catherine Campbell</a><br><b>Sent: </b>Tuesday, June 5, 2018 3:32 PM<br><b>To: </b><a href="mailto:daviddirks@rogers.com" target="_blank">David dirks</a>; <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">FVC Waterloo Region Discussion</a><br><b>Subject: </b>Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford</p></div><div><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_7398994631862018071h5"><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t remember the PC percent of the popular vote. <u></u><u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><br>On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <<a href="mailto:daviddirks@rogers.com" target="_blank">daviddirks@rogers.com</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></p></div><blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt"><div><div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_7398994631862018071m_-3217138021903861730yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_18924"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR, speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may be able to move the needle in the future.<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_7398994631862018071m_-3217138021903861730yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_19005"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><br><br><u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_7398994631862018071m_-3217138021903861730yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_19006"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">David<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><div><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <<a href="mailto:judkowitz@gmail.com" target="_blank">judkowitz@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u><u></u></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_7398994631862018071m_-3217138021903861730yiv1664290230"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20% of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a motivation for change.<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_7398994631862018071m_-3217138021903861730yiv1664290230yqt29885"><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <<a href="mailto:erosamond@worldline.ca" target="_blank">erosamond@worldline.ca</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some accuracy there.<br><br>Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll tracker this afternoon.<u></u><u></u></span></p><table class="m_-885241454435986959m_7398994631862018071m_-3217138021903861730MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td width="56" style="width:42.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal"><u>Party</u><u></u><u></u></p></td><td width="106" style="width:79.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Popular Vote </u><u></u><u></u></p></td><td width="136" style="width:102.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Proportional Seats</u><u></u><u></u></p></td><td width="121" style="width:90.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Projected Seats</u><u></u><u></u></p></td><td width="120" style="width:1.25in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Power of a Vote</u><u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal">NDP<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.361<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">45<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">48<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">1.067<u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal">PC<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.376<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">47<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">74<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">1.574<u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal">Lib<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.199<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">25<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">2<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.080<u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:13.5pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal">Grn<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.050<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">6<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.000<u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:13.5pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal">Oth<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.014<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">2<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.000<u></u><u></u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">1.000<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">124<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">124<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><br>The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly. But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them won't count.<br><br>Evan<br><br><br>On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt"><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening & discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important necessity. <u></u><u></u></span></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at straws? <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections? Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Hopefully yours,<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Sharon<u></u><u></u></span></p></div></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <<a href="mailto:eleanor7000@gmail.com" target="_blank">eleanor7000@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></span></p><blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Hello Fair Voters: <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People aren't grasping this! <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:<u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> <a href="https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1" target="_blank"><span style="color:#4285f4">https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1</span></a> <u></u><u></u></span></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">It's a must-see. <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs. <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR. <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Eleanor <u></u><u></u></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><br>______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<br>Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a><br>Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u><u></u></span></p></blockquote></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><br><br><u></u><u></u></span></p><pre style="background:white"><span style="color:black">______________________________<wbr>_________________<u></u><u></u></span></pre><pre style="background:white"><span style="color:black">This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<u></u><u></u></span></pre><pre style="background:white"><span style="color:black">Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a><u></u><u></u></span></pre><pre style="background:white"><span style="color:black">Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a><u></u><u></u></span></pre></blockquote><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<br>Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a><br>Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a><u></u><u></u></span></p></blockquote></div></div></div></div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_7398994631862018071m_-3217138021903861730yqt69107"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<br>Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a><br>Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a><u></u><u></u></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right:.5in;margin-bottom:5.0pt;margin-left:.5in">______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<br>Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a><br>Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p></div></div></div></div><br>______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>
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<br><br>---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: Dave Arthur <<a href="mailto:arthurd23@bell.net" target="_blank">arthurd23@bell.net</a>><br>To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <<a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.<wbr>thinkers.org</a>><br>Cc: <br>Bcc: <br>Date: Wed, 6 Jun 2018 08:57:35 -0400<br>Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford<br><div lang="EN-US" link="blue" vlink="#954F72"><div class="m_-885241454435986959m_4511535682782164880WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal">Where do I find them?</p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Sent from <a href="https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986" target="_blank">Mail</a> for Windows 10</p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div style="border:none;border-top:solid #e1e1e1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in"><p class="MsoNormal" style="border:none;padding:0in"><b>From: </b><a href="mailto:anitann88@gmail.com" target="_blank">Anita Nickerson</a><br><b>Sent: </b>Wednesday, June 6, 2018 1:01 AM<br><b>To: </b><a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">FVC Waterloo Region Discussion</a><br><b>Subject: </b>Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford</p></div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal">We have all the elections results on google drive if you want.</p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal">On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 3:36 PM, Dave Arthur <<a href="mailto:arthurd23@bell.net" target="_blank">arthurd23@bell.net</a>> wrote:</p><blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal">I think a good project would be to look back at federal and provincial elections and dig out the most distorted vote % / seat % examples there have ever been.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Maybe I’ll take that on.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Dave A</p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p><p class="MsoNormal">Sent from <a href="https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986" target="_blank">Mail</a> for Windows 10</p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p><div style="border:none;border-top:solid #e1e1e1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in"><p class="MsoNormal"><b>From: </b><a href="mailto:cdcampbell9@gmail.com" target="_blank">Catherine Campbell</a><br><b>Sent: </b>Tuesday, June 5, 2018 3:32 PM<br><b>To: </b><a href="mailto:daviddirks@rogers.com" target="_blank">David dirks</a>; <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">FVC Waterloo Region Discussion</a><br><b>Subject: </b>Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford</p></div><div><div><p class="MsoNormal"> </p><p class="MsoNormal">Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t remember the PC percent of the popular vote. </p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><br>On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <<a href="mailto:daviddirks@rogers.com" target="_blank">daviddirks@rogers.com</a>> wrote:</p></div><blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt"><div><div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_4511535682782164880m_-3217138021903861730yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_18924"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR, speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may be able to move the needle in the future.</span></p></div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_4511535682782164880m_-3217138021903861730yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_19005"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><u></u> <u></u></p></div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_4511535682782164880m_-3217138021903861730yui_3_16_0_1_1528223926022_19006"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">David</span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div><div><div><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <<a href="mailto:judkowitz@gmail.com" target="_blank">judkowitz@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p><div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_4511535682782164880m_-3217138021903861730yiv1664290230"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20% of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a motivation for change.</span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p><div><div id="m_-885241454435986959m_4511535682782164880m_-3217138021903861730yiv1664290230yqt29885"><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <<a href="mailto:erosamond@worldline.ca" target="_blank">erosamond@worldline.ca</a>> wrote:</span></p></div><blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some accuracy there.<br><br>Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll tracker this afternoon.</span></p><table class="m_-885241454435986959m_4511535682782164880MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td width="56" style="width:42.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal"><u>Party</u></p></td><td width="106" style="width:79.5pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Popular Vote </u></p></td><td width="136" style="width:102.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Proportional Seats</u></p></td><td width="121" style="width:90.75pt;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Projected Seats</u></p></td><td width="120" style="width:1.25in;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><u>Power of a Vote</u></p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal">NDP</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.361</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">45</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">48</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">1.067</p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal">PC</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.376</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">47</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">74</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">1.574</p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal">Lib</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.199</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">25</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">2</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.080</p></td></tr><tr style="height:13.5pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal">Grn</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.050</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">6</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.000</p></td></tr><tr style="height:13.5pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal">Oth</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.014</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">2</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:13.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">0.000</p></td></tr><tr style="height:12.75pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">1.000<u></u><u></u></p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">124</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right">124</p></td><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:12.75pt"></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><br>The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly. But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them won't count.<br><br>Evan<br><br><br>On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:</span><u></u><u></u></p></div><blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt"><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening & discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important necessity. </span></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at straws? </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections? Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.</span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Hopefully yours,</span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">Sharon</span></p></div></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <<a href="mailto:eleanor7000@gmail.com" target="_blank">eleanor7000@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</span></p><blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Hello Fair Voters: </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People aren't grasping this! </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:</span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> <a href="https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1" target="_blank"><span style="color:#4285f4">https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1</span></a> </span></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">It's a must-see. </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs. </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR. </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Eleanor </span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"><br>______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<br>Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a><br>Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a></span></p></blockquote></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><u></u> <u></u></p><pre style="background:white"><span style="color:black">______________________________<wbr>_________________</span></pre><pre style="background:white"><span style="color:black">This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list</span></pre><pre style="background:white"><span style="color:black">Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a></span></pre><pre style="background:white"><span style="color:black">Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" 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class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black">______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<br>Post a message: <a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers<wbr>.org</a><br>Unsubscribe: <a href="http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org" target="_blank">http://listserv.thinkers.org/m<wbr>ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l<wbr>istserv.thinkers.org</a></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:black"> </span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right:.5in;margin-bottom:5.0pt;margin-left:.5in">______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list<br>Post a message: <a 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