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<p>Hi again Dave and also to any other people who received the first data chart I sent to Dave<br /></p>
<p>First, let me explain that the chart I sent was incomplete. I was transferring new data to a chart I had designed for the 2015 election and had not finished the work nor had I added the lines for the new PPC party.<br /></p>
<p>I wanted you to see that it was possible to have data for each province and I was in too big a hurry to accomplish that. I apologize that I did not make that clear.<br /></p>
<p>Today I had time to complete the chart including the addition of data for the PPC party.I had to shrink the chart size to smaller print and I hope you can read it easily.<br /></p>
<p>The updated chart is attached. Please note that I felt the best source for data was the Elections Canada web site and not some of the media sites.<br /></p>
<p>I hope this final chart will provide everyone with useful information and also make the following points clear about using an MMP system:<br /></p>
<ol>
<li>With a MMP system there would be 6 Liberal seats in Alberta and Saskatchewan instead of 0 seats<br /></li>
<li>The Conservative would go from 4 to 10 seats in the Maritime provinces<br /></li>
<li>The NDP would go from 24 to 59 seats and the percentage of seats would now be close to the percentage of votes<br /></li>
<li>The Green party would go from 3 to18 seats and the seat percentage would be closer to the vote percentage<br /></li>
<li>Although there is NOT a perfect matching of the percentage votes received to the percentage of seats won this system still retains the traditional ridings. Personally I think that is a very important point for most Canadians and must be respected.<br /></li>
<li>There are no seats for teh PPC party because the approach I am using for Top up seats has a lower cut off at about 5% in the larger provinces and 10% in the smallest provinces. This has the advantage of avoiding the chaos that often occurs in the elections in Italy and Israel.<br /></li>
<li>This chart does NOT contain the changes that would occur if FPTP voting, that is used in the MMP system in Germany and New Zealand, was to be replaced with Second Choice Preferential voting for the riding candidates. I have not had time to run models for this aspect but I would expect there could be somewhere between 5 and 10 changes to the actual seats won using FPTP.<br /></li>
</ol>
<p>I hope this updated chart is useful even though it does not have the colours of a bar graph chart<br /></p>
<p>Gordon N<br /></p>
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---------- Original Message ----------
<br />From: Dave Arthur <arthurd23@bell.net>
<br />Date: October 25, 2019 at 5:21 PM
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<p class="MsoNormal">Thanks Gordon.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Quite helpful.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I’d like to make a bar graph and perhaps use results from an MMP result with 338 seats.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Dave</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Sent from <a href="https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986">Mail</a> for Windows 10</p>
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<p style="border: none; padding: 0in;" class="MsoNormal"><strong>From: </strong><a href="mailto:gordon.n@sympatico.ca">gordon.n gordon.n</a><br /><strong>Sent: </strong>Friday, October 25, 2019 10:39 AM<br /><strong>To: </strong><a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org">FVC Waterloo Region Discussion</a>; <a href="mailto:arthurd23@bell.net">Dave Arthur</a><br /><strong>Subject: </strong>Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Did you see this CBC item on Google? How would proportional representation have shaped this election’s results? | CBC/Radio-Canada</p>
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<p>Hi Dave and other FVC folks</p>
<p>I think the CBC did a good job with the graphics they used but I agree that it lacked detailed information about what would happen in each province</p>
<p>I have worked out the statistics for a MMP Commons based on the following assumptions</p>
<ol start="1" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal">Retain the current 338 ridings and elect the MP's for those ridings using FPTP</li>
<li class="MsoNormal">Add an additional 83 top up LIST seats that would be allocated proportionally inside each province. I did not use a national allocation because I am of the opinion that would get into constitutional difficulties</li>
<li class="MsoNormal">The expanded Commons of 421 members would require a party to have 212 seats to form a majority government</li>
<li class="MsoNormal">Since the last decade review of seat distribution allowed for an expansion of 30 seats in the Commons, the cost of the introduction of an extra 83 seats to achieve proportional representation could be written off against the next two redistribution exercises.</li>
</ol>
<p>The data in the attached chart shows that the Liberals would be in first place with 167 seats (39.6% of seats versus a vote count of 39.5%) and the Conservatives second with 145 seats(34.4% of seats vs a vote count of 31.9%). Although not perfect this result is close to the vote count</p>
<p>The major gains are for the NDP and the Greens</p>
<p>Note that at the provincial level the following changes would occur</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal">the Liberals would go from 0 to 6 seats in Alberta & Saskatchewan</li>
<li class="MsoNormal">the NDP would go from 1 to 6 seats in Alberta 7 Saskatchewan</li>
<li class="MsoNormal">the Greens would go from 2 to 7 seats in BC, 0 to 5 seats in Ontario and 0 to 4 seats in Quebec</li>
<li class="MsoNormal">the Conservatives would go from 4 to 10 seats in the four Maritime provinces</li>
</ul>
<p>As you know, I personally advocate for an MMPP system that would replace FPTP with a Second Choice Preferential system for the riding voting. If this were done there would be some minor changes to the attached chart that I have not had the time to work out.</p>
<p>I hope these statistics answer the question you put even though I have not presented them in bar graph format</p>
<p>Gordon Nicholls</p>
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<p style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;" class="MsoNormal">---------- Original Message ---------- <br />From: Dave Arthur <arthurd23@bell.net> <br />Date: October 25, 2019 at 3:59 PM</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">I would like to see a similar comparison including a breakdown by province.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I believe it would show that the east and west is not as divided and polarized as the FPTP results suggest.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We need this kind of more accurate picture at this time when the media are magnifying the east-west divide.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So far I have had difficulty finding popular vote numbers by province without using all 338 riding results.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A bar graph by province using party colours would be best as a pie graph for each province would take too much space.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Any takers?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Dave A</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Sent from <a href="https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986">Mail</a> for Windows 10</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif;">From: </span></strong><a href="mailto:stuchandler43@gmail.com">STUART CHANDLER</a><br /><strong><span style="font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif;">Sent: </span></strong>Friday, October 25, 2019 8:50 AM<br /><strong><span style="font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif;">To: </span></strong><a href="mailto:fvc-wat-disc@listserv.thinkers.org">Sharon Sommerville</a><br /><strong><span style="font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif;">Subject: </span></strong>[fvc-wat-disc] Did you see this CBC item on Google? How would proportional representation have shaped this election’s results? | CBC/Radio-Canada</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2019/elections-federales/mode-scrutin-proportionnelle-mixte-compensatoire/index-en.html">https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2019/elections-federales/mode-scrutin-proportionnelle-mixte-compensatoire/index-en.html</a><br /></p>
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