[fvc-wat-disc] Essays on Voting Systems

Fri Jun 3 11:58:26 EDT 2011

Hi Mark, Les and Kevin and all others on this list. I've also copied a couple of
our new members, whom I am not sure are on this list. So excited to be having a
discussion again!

I see where all of you are coming from. I think in Fair Vote we need a
multi-pronged approach. Forgive this long email. I am useless at being
succinct, but hope you will take time to read and give me your thoughts.

Yes, the most direct way would be to get the politicians and parties who are
currently opposed to PR to be in favour of it, based on their self interest (we
tried "fair" and that only got us so far in the past 10 years). But I have no
access to Liberals and Conservatives with any power. There are a minority of
Liberal members within Fair Vote - like Fair Vote's president - who talk
sincerely and diligently to other Liberal members about PR, but they have
little influence in the party, whose average riding members, I believe, are
largely uninformed/misinformed about how PR would help them in the long run and
being sold Alternative Vote. The ones active in a party (committed to the club)
are also the most likely to think in terms of party self interest over
democracy. I believe average Liberal voters at home would be much more
receptive. So unless lots of fair voters join the big tent parties in order to
influence them, the only means I have to influence the party brass - who well
know what each system would mean to their party in terms of seats and power -
is public demand.

We have now lost 4 referendums - 3 were lost badly. When they researched the BC
referendums to find out what happened between referendum number 1 (58% in
favour) and referendum #2 (30 something percent), they found.... Liberal voters
changed their mind. That was the difference. As soon as average Liberals saw the
"unfair to them" results of the election reversed so their party of choice was
back in power again, they no longer cared that the system was unfair to anyone
else.

So, our messaging, "Make Every Vote Count" (or BC STV - "Power up your vote")
has sold us a solid 35% of the voters whose parties are chronically
underrepresented, but has no impact on voters whose vote does count, or if it
didn't this time, it might land them a phony majority or at least a minority
next time.

I see the breakdown of voters as follows (similar to Kevin's):

33% Sold on PR, based on no more wasted votes, make every vote count
33% Against PR and pretty much unmovable (lots of Conservatives in this group,
at this point in history)
33% Uninformed/misinformed about PR - see it as "too risky" based on lies they
have been fed. Many Liberal voters in this group, such as the older ladies who
live on my street. The Liberals know the public has finally figured out
something is wrong with the system, and are trying to sell AV to make it their
party policy, but this hasn't yet gained a big audience outside their active
party members.

I agree with Kevin. The best chance we have is for the next government to be a
Liberal-NDP coalition or electoral pact (and possibly Green:). The Liberals want
AV (if you don't know why, read my easy article on Alternative Vote).
(http://reclaimdemocracy.webs.com/avandthewinneris.htm)
The NDP and Green want PR. Neither side is going to have enough seats to push
through their preferred system without the support of the other. The NDP will
not support Alternative Vote, because just as it permanently gives the Liberals
and advantage, it permanently disadvantages the NDP. But, together, they may
support a genuine two part referendum process to give voters a choice.

So back to the multi-pronged approach:

1) Public Education. Continue reaching voters, especially Liberal voters, or
those that vote but aren't political junkies, any way we can. Our local chapter
is probably leading the pack on activities that do that. We keep doing outreach,
presentations, and having events on general democracy topics that draw in some
Liberals who always ask in the discussion, "What's the difference between AV
and PR? How would PR work?" We're looking at having Democracy Day activities
that stretch over a week in September, including a yearly rally and events.

2) Supporter mobilization to help with (a). We're also achieving this with the
activities above. Encouraging supporters not to give up hope! We could use more
help in our local group to help, and a few have joined since the election,
which we appreciate!

3) Media attention. If we won the media, we would win this fight. So far we have
been stuck on how to do this, because even though Fair Vote Canada capitalizes
on every opportunity to draw attention to the system, they largely ignore us.
My dad has suggested an idea to me that would be an incredible amount of money
or work but I am willing to try. I could start my own (volunteer) polling
company and do local polls, starting in K-W, asking people if they want to get
rid of FPTP. I could do this in 100 or more ridings, polling enough people in
each riding to get a statistically valid sample. Local polls showing people
want change are local news ("Kitchener voters want change"). Enough of these,
and the big media may pick up on it. And I know this may sound cynical, but I
do believe the Liberal party leaders (and all the parties, to different
extents) watch polls when they decide what policies to pursue...

4) Liberal voters. The people I am most frustrated with but whom we really need
to reach the most. If we ever get our next referendum, to go into it with the
same messaging for these folks that has defeated us 4 times is lunacy. We need
messaging targeted to ordinary folks who often vote Liberal and make up their
minds based on a five second sound clip. We have always let our opponents frame
the PR debate, and become defensive trying to explain why their assertions
about Israel have nothing to do with Canada and how it's about more than charity
for the Green Party. So let's frame PR, based solidly on research, for Liberal
voters, in a way we never have before. How about, "Stable, effective, and
moderate - the democracy Canadians deserve." That's exactly what you get with
PR. My proposal is to hire a marketing company to do focus groups with Liberal
voters and find out what messaging resonates with them so we are better
prepared for selling this next time.

Anita

Quoting Kevin Smith <kevedsmith at gmail.com>:

> I think the court of public opinion is important, and shouldn't be
> discounted.
>
> Majority governments have often backed away from controversial proposals
> because of public outcry.  We need to have enough demand to achieve our
> goal.
>
> We have some work to do with the electorate: 33% favour the status quo,
> 33% favour alternative vote (a non-PR system), and 33% favour PR.
>
> For the politicians, PR would be in the interests of the opposition
> Liberals, NDP
> Greens, and Bloc.  If we could convince them to work together to start a
> national discussion, that would be a good start.  If the Conservatives won't
> implement it, the opposition could form a unity coalition to get into power
> and make it happen.
>
> (There was a precedent for this type of thing, to pass conscription during
> W. W. I.)
>
> Kevin.
>
> On Fri, Jun 3, 2011 at 10:09 AM, Mark Charboneau <
> markcharboneau at sympatico.ca> wrote:
>
> > Les et al:
> >
> > I agree Les that those who are in office and in control don't want to
> > change the system that guarantees their future.  Also, I thought that a
> > referendum would have enabled the citizens to express their views on a
> > flawed proposal that would cost far too much money for taxpayers and be
> > nothing but a legacy project for certain politicians.  Its fine for all
> sort
> > of future gazers and business leaders to stare off into the sky and crave
> > LRT dreams, but the tax projections of LRT are being hidden from the people
> > who will live here and have to share the burden of Region taxes.
> >
> > However, there are many voters out there who are just not sufficiently
> > informed about the theory and reality of proportional representation.  I
> > think there is a responsibility by those that know to those who don't know
> > to provide the kind of information that Paul and Bob have done.  Isn't that
> > what politics of any sort is about, trying to convince others to accept and
> > share our ideas on any specific issue?
> >
> > Otherwise if the whole proposal just seems to be futile because of the
> > election of one more majority government, perhaps we just just fold up our
> > tents and give up; or alternatively we should start planning for a violent
> > overthrow of the government like they are doing in Yemen right now.
> >
> > Thanks to Bob and Paul for that in formation.  I have found it useful.
> >
> > Mark Charboneau
> >
> > On 2011-06-03, at 7:08 AM, Les Kadar wrote:
> >
> > > Thanks for all of this information.
> > > The difficulty in all of this is that the people to convince are those in
> > office who don't want to hear it.
> > > As a system change has impacts on those that are in it, namely the
> > elected officials, any changes to their status, power or influence will be
> > viewed with complete negativity and spun to the public as counterproductive
> > to the good of the country.
> > >
> > > While I appreciate the efforts of educating the public and enrolling as
> > many voters as possible, I maintain that it is not them that we need to
> > harness but those in office.
> > >
> > > I look at the latest example of misuse of authority in the Regional vote
> > that just happened this week where Regional councillors voted down the
> > ability of the public to hold a " referendum " on the LRT proposal that has
> > been worked on by regional staff now for over 8 years.
> > > This right for us to advise those we have apparently elected to "
> > represent " not " lead " has been taken away by the very people we elected
> > to represent us.
> > > It just magnifies my thinking on who to convince to afford us the right
> > to a fair vote in this country.
> > >
> > > Les Kadar.
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message ----- From: <lanickerson at b2b2c.ca>
> > > To: "FVC Waterloo Region Discussion" <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> > >
> > > Sent: Thursday, June 02, 2011 10:39 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Essays on Voting Systems
> > >
> > >
> > >> Thanks for this, Bob - these articles are fabulous! They are going to
> > help me
> > >> understand and explain things with more confidence. How do I contact
> > Paul? I
> > >> don't think I have his email anymore. I would like to put some of his
> > articles
> > >> into a handout or chapbook to give to people interested in learning more
> > about
> > >> MMP.
> > >>
> > >> Anita
> > >>
> > >> Quoting Bob Jonkman <bjonkman at sobac.com>:
> > >>
> > >>> Hi all:  At last week's event someone asked me what those different
> > voting
> > >>> system are all about. Paul Nijjar, an active member of Fair Vote
> > Waterloo in
> > >>> 2007 did considerable research into the system known as "Mixed Member
> > >>> Proportional", which he published the summer before the 2007 provincial
> > >>> referendum on electoral reform. MMP is the system proposed by the
> > Ontario
> > >>> Citizens' Coalition to replace the existing First Past The Post system.
> > Of
> > >>> course, the 2007 referendum outcome was not in favour of change.
> > >>>
> > >>> In one article Paul lists a glossary of voting system types, which
> > might be a
> > >>> good place to start if you just need a quick overview of the different
> > >>> systems ( http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/26695.html ). The other
> > articles
> > >>> give in-depth information into the Mixed Member Proportional system.
> > >>>
> > >>> --Bob.
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Coalitions vs. Minority Governments
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/21516.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Three Party Systems and Bob Rae's Government
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/21860.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: MMP vs. Parallel Systems
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/22127.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Effects of the list seat ratio
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/22521.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Power Diffusion
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/22619.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: No Confidence Votes and MMP
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/23002.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Effects of the 3% Threshold
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/23271.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: False Dichotomies
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/23307.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Party Life Cycles
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/24316.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Why Closed Lists?
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/24378.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: A Tired Rehashing of Identity Politics
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/24675.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Party Hackery in Three Paragraphs
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/25303.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: What do List Members Do?
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/25597.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Contradictory Arguments
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/26614.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Glossary (aka Lazy Entry)
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/26695.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Are people happier under MMP?
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/28087.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Things that will annoy you
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/28648.html
> > >>>
> > >>> MMP 102: Why vote for MMP?
> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/28827.html
> > >>>
> > >>> _______________________________________________
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> >
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> > >>>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> Anita
> > >> Want to have a real say in democracy? Want to see a more democratic,
> > >> compassionate Canada? Help me make every vote count! www.fairvote.ca
> > >>
> > >>
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Anita
Want to have a real say in democracy? Want to see a more democratic,
compassionate Canada? Help me make every vote count! www.fairvote.ca