[fvc-wat-disc] [Bulk] Re: Essays on Voting Systems

Les Kadar leskadar at rogers.com
Fri Jun 3 20:51:18 EDT 2011 

Lost referendums are usually due to poorly worded questions put to the 
public on purpose. To encourage a no vote.

It is natural that politicians will vote against anything that brings their 
future into question.
For this reason it is best to approach those that have not won but instead 
lost by a small margin and want to run again to join the fold.
The court of public opinion has to be swayed but can only be asked to 
support something that has not been demonized by those in office and then 
with a clear simple question not worded in favour of the status quo.
So the multiprong approach of course as you say is the only way.
The media has to buy in, be included in all discussions and explanations and 
then be made to think that it is their idea.
The runnerup policticians need to be invited in to be part of the solution 
so for their next attempt, they are on side and will support the effort.
The existing policitians that will take the time to see the light so to 
speak also need to be party to this.
Long road.
lk
----- Original Message ----- 
From: <lanickerson at b2b2c.ca>
To: "FVC Waterloo Region Discussion" <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
Sent: Friday, June 03, 2011 11:58 AM
Subject: [Bulk] Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Essays on Voting Systems


> Hi Mark, Les and Kevin and all others on this list. I've also copied a 
> couple of
> our new members, whom I am not sure are on this list. So excited to be 
> having a
> discussion again!
>
> I see where all of you are coming from. I think in Fair Vote we need a
> multi-pronged approach. Forgive this long email. I am useless at being
> succinct, but hope you will take time to read and give me your thoughts.
>
> Yes, the most direct way would be to get the politicians and parties who 
> are
> currently opposed to PR to be in favour of it, based on their self 
> interest (we
> tried "fair" and that only got us so far in the past 10 years). But I have 
> no
> access to Liberals and Conservatives with any power. There are a minority 
> of
> Liberal members within Fair Vote - like Fair Vote's president - who talk
> sincerely and diligently to other Liberal members about PR, but they have
> little influence in the party, whose average riding members, I believe, 
> are
> largely uninformed/misinformed about how PR would help them in the long 
> run and
> being sold Alternative Vote. The ones active in a party (committed to the 
> club)
> are also the most likely to think in terms of party self interest over
> democracy. I believe average Liberal voters at home would be much more
> receptive. So unless lots of fair voters join the big tent parties in 
> order to
> influence them, the only means I have to influence the party brass - who 
> well
> know what each system would mean to their party in terms of seats and 
> power -
> is public demand.
>
> We have now lost 4 referendums - 3 were lost badly. When they researched 
> the BC
> referendums to find out what happened between referendum number 1 (58% in
> favour) and referendum #2 (30 something percent), they found.... Liberal 
> voters
> changed their mind. That was the difference. As soon as average Liberals 
> saw the
> "unfair to them" results of the election reversed so their party of choice 
> was
> back in power again, they no longer cared that the system was unfair to 
> anyone
> else.
>
> So, our messaging, "Make Every Vote Count" (or BC STV - "Power up your 
> vote")
> has sold us a solid 35% of the voters whose parties are chronically
> underrepresented, but has no impact on voters whose vote does count, or if 
> it
> didn't this time, it might land them a phony majority or at least a 
> minority
> next time.
>
> I see the breakdown of voters as follows (similar to Kevin's):
>
> 33% Sold on PR, based on no more wasted votes, make every vote count
> 33% Against PR and pretty much unmovable (lots of Conservatives in this 
> group,
> at this point in history)
> 33% Uninformed/misinformed about PR - see it as "too risky" based on lies 
> they
> have been fed. Many Liberal voters in this group, such as the older ladies 
> who
> live on my street. The Liberals know the public has finally figured out
> something is wrong with the system, and are trying to sell AV to make it 
> their
> party policy, but this hasn't yet gained a big audience outside their 
> active
> party members.
>
> I agree with Kevin. The best chance we have is for the next government to 
> be a
> Liberal-NDP coalition or electoral pact (and possibly Green:). The 
> Liberals want
> AV (if you don't know why, read my easy article on Alternative Vote).
> (http://reclaimdemocracy.webs.com/avandthewinneris.htm)
> The NDP and Green want PR. Neither side is going to have enough seats to 
> push
> through their preferred system without the support of the other. The NDP 
> will
> not support Alternative Vote, because just as it permanently gives the 
> Liberals
> and advantage, it permanently disadvantages the NDP. But, together, they 
> may
> support a genuine two part referendum process to give voters a choice.
>
> So back to the multi-pronged approach:
>
> 1) Public Education. Continue reaching voters, especially Liberal voters, 
> or
> those that vote but aren't political junkies, any way we can. Our local 
> chapter
> is probably leading the pack on activities that do that. We keep doing 
> outreach,
> presentations, and having events on general democracy topics that draw in 
> some
> Liberals who always ask in the discussion, "What's the difference between 
> AV
> and PR? How would PR work?" We're looking at having Democracy Day 
> activities
> that stretch over a week in September, including a yearly rally and 
> events.
>
> 2) Supporter mobilization to help with (a). We're also achieving this with 
> the
> activities above. Encouraging supporters not to give up hope! We could use 
> more
> help in our local group to help, and a few have joined since the election,
> which we appreciate!
>
> 3) Media attention. If we won the media, we would win this fight. So far 
> we have
> been stuck on how to do this, because even though Fair Vote Canada 
> capitalizes
> on every opportunity to draw attention to the system, they largely ignore 
> us.
> My dad has suggested an idea to me that would be an incredible amount of 
> money
> or work but I am willing to try. I could start my own (volunteer) polling
> company and do local polls, starting in K-W, asking people if they want to 
> get
> rid of FPTP. I could do this in 100 or more ridings, polling enough people 
> in
> each riding to get a statistically valid sample. Local polls showing 
> people
> want change are local news ("Kitchener voters want change"). Enough of 
> these,
> and the big media may pick up on it. And I know this may sound cynical, 
> but I
> do believe the Liberal party leaders (and all the parties, to different
> extents) watch polls when they decide what policies to pursue...
>
> 4) Liberal voters. The people I am most frustrated with but whom we really 
> need
> to reach the most. If we ever get our next referendum, to go into it with 
> the
> same messaging for these folks that has defeated us 4 times is lunacy. We 
> need
> messaging targeted to ordinary folks who often vote Liberal and make up 
> their
> minds based on a five second sound clip. We have always let our opponents 
> frame
> the PR debate, and become defensive trying to explain why their assertions
> about Israel have nothing to do with Canada and how it's about more than 
> charity
> for the Green Party. So let's frame PR, based solidly on research, for 
> Liberal
> voters, in a way we never have before. How about, "Stable, effective, and
> moderate - the democracy Canadians deserve." That's exactly what you get 
> with
> PR. My proposal is to hire a marketing company to do focus groups with 
> Liberal
> voters and find out what messaging resonates with them so we are better
> prepared for selling this next time.
>
> Anita
>
>
>
>
> Quoting Kevin Smith <kevedsmith at gmail.com>:
>
>> I think the court of public opinion is important, and shouldn't be
>> discounted.
>>
>> Majority governments have often backed away from controversial proposals
>> because of public outcry.  We need to have enough demand to achieve our
>> goal.
>>
>> We have some work to do with the electorate: 33% favour the status quo,
>> 33% favour alternative vote (a non-PR system), and 33% favour PR.
>>
>> For the politicians, PR would be in the interests of the opposition
>> Liberals, NDP
>> Greens, and Bloc.  If we could convince them to work together to start a
>> national discussion, that would be a good start.  If the Conservatives 
>> won't
>> implement it, the opposition could form a unity coalition to get into 
>> power
>> and make it happen.
>>
>> (There was a precedent for this type of thing, to pass conscription 
>> during
>> W. W. I.)
>>
>> Kevin.
>>
>> On Fri, Jun 3, 2011 at 10:09 AM, Mark Charboneau <
>> markcharboneau at sympatico.ca> wrote:
>>
>> > Les et al:
>> >
>> > I agree Les that those who are in office and in control don't want to
>> > change the system that guarantees their future.  Also, I thought that a
>> > referendum would have enabled the citizens to express their views on a
>> > flawed proposal that would cost far too much money for taxpayers and be
>> > nothing but a legacy project for certain politicians.  Its fine for all
>> sort
>> > of future gazers and business leaders to stare off into the sky and 
>> > crave
>> > LRT dreams, but the tax projections of LRT are being hidden from the 
>> > people
>> > who will live here and have to share the burden of Region taxes.
>> >
>> > However, there are many voters out there who are just not sufficiently
>> > informed about the theory and reality of proportional representation. 
>> > I
>> > think there is a responsibility by those that know to those who don't 
>> > know
>> > to provide the kind of information that Paul and Bob have done.  Isn't 
>> > that
>> > what politics of any sort is about, trying to convince others to accept 
>> > and
>> > share our ideas on any specific issue?
>> >
>> > Otherwise if the whole proposal just seems to be futile because of the
>> > election of one more majority government, perhaps we just just fold up 
>> > our
>> > tents and give up; or alternatively we should start planning for a 
>> > violent
>> > overthrow of the government like they are doing in Yemen right now.
>> >
>> > Thanks to Bob and Paul for that in formation.  I have found it useful.
>> >
>> > Mark Charboneau
>> >
>> > On 2011-06-03, at 7:08 AM, Les Kadar wrote:
>> >
>> > > Thanks for all of this information.
>> > > The difficulty in all of this is that the people to convince are 
>> > > those in
>> > office who don't want to hear it.
>> > > As a system change has impacts on those that are in it, namely the
>> > elected officials, any changes to their status, power or influence will 
>> > be
>> > viewed with complete negativity and spun to the public as 
>> > counterproductive
>> > to the good of the country.
>> > >
>> > > While I appreciate the efforts of educating the public and enrolling 
>> > > as
>> > many voters as possible, I maintain that it is not them that we need to
>> > harness but those in office.
>> > >
>> > > I look at the latest example of misuse of authority in the Regional 
>> > > vote
>> > that just happened this week where Regional councillors voted down the
>> > ability of the public to hold a " referendum " on the LRT proposal that 
>> > has
>> > been worked on by regional staff now for over 8 years.
>> > > This right for us to advise those we have apparently elected to "
>> > represent " not " lead " has been taken away by the very people we 
>> > elected
>> > to represent us.
>> > > It just magnifies my thinking on who to convince to afford us the 
>> > > right
>> > to a fair vote in this country.
>> > >
>> > > Les Kadar.
>> > >
>> > > ----- Original Message ----- From: <lanickerson at b2b2c.ca>
>> > > To: "FVC Waterloo Region Discussion" 
>> > > <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> > >
>> > > Sent: Thursday, June 02, 2011 10:39 PM
>> > > Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Essays on Voting Systems
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >> Thanks for this, Bob - these articles are fabulous! They are going 
>> > >> to
>> > help me
>> > >> understand and explain things with more confidence. How do I contact
>> > Paul? I
>> > >> don't think I have his email anymore. I would like to put some of 
>> > >> his
>> > articles
>> > >> into a handout or chapbook to give to people interested in learning 
>> > >> more
>> > about
>> > >> MMP.
>> > >>
>> > >> Anita
>> > >>
>> > >> Quoting Bob Jonkman <bjonkman at sobac.com>:
>> > >>
>> > >>> Hi all:  At last week's event someone asked me what those different
>> > voting
>> > >>> system are all about. Paul Nijjar, an active member of Fair Vote
>> > Waterloo in
>> > >>> 2007 did considerable research into the system known as "Mixed 
>> > >>> Member
>> > >>> Proportional", which he published the summer before the 2007 
>> > >>> provincial
>> > >>> referendum on electoral reform. MMP is the system proposed by the
>> > Ontario
>> > >>> Citizens' Coalition to replace the existing First Past The Post 
>> > >>> system.
>> > Of
>> > >>> course, the 2007 referendum outcome was not in favour of change.
>> > >>>
>> > >>> In one article Paul lists a glossary of voting system types, which
>> > might be a
>> > >>> good place to start if you just need a quick overview of the 
>> > >>> different
>> > >>> systems ( http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/26695.html ). The other
>> > articles
>> > >>> give in-depth information into the Mixed Member Proportional 
>> > >>> system.
>> > >>>
>> > >>> --Bob.
>> > >>>
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Coalitions vs. Minority Governments
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/21516.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Three Party Systems and Bob Rae's Government
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/21860.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: MMP vs. Parallel Systems
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/22127.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Effects of the list seat ratio
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/22521.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Power Diffusion
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/22619.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: No Confidence Votes and MMP
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/23002.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Effects of the 3% Threshold
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/23271.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: False Dichotomies
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/23307.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Party Life Cycles
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/24316.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Why Closed Lists?
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/24378.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: A Tired Rehashing of Identity Politics
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/24675.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Party Hackery in Three Paragraphs
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/25303.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: What do List Members Do?
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/25597.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Contradictory Arguments
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/26614.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Glossary (aka Lazy Entry)
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/26695.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Are people happier under MMP?
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/28087.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Things that will annoy you
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/28648.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> MMP 102: Why vote for MMP?
>> > >>> http://pnijjar.livejournal.com/28827.html
>> > >>>
>> > >>> _______________________________________________
>> > >>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> > >>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> > >>> Unsubscribe:
>> > >>>
>> > >>
>> >
>>
> http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>> > >>>
>> > >>
>> > >>
>> > >> Anita
>> > >> Want to have a real say in democracy? Want to see a more democratic,
>> > >> compassionate Canada? Help me make every vote count! www.fairvote.ca
>> > >>
>> > >>
>> > >> _______________________________________________
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>
> Anita
> Want to have a real say in democracy? Want to see a more democratic,
> compassionate Canada? Help me make every vote count! www.fairvote.ca
>
>
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