[fvc-wat-disc] Column by Geoffrey Stevens

Tue Aug 8 12:34:27 EDT 2017

No, I'm sorry, I do not see a poll where the majority of people support
FPTP.

I see a poll where a plurality support a government's decision.  I see 17
percent do not know what they think on electoral reform.

"I don't know" is not the same as "I like FPTP".  It isn't the same whether
they answer "I don't know" or whether they don't respond.  Mostly, it means
they are not informed on the issue, so leave the decision to others.

The great news about this poll is that 38% ARE already informed on this
issue, so we've gotten that far.

The other thing is the number of people who support PR, but also support a
government who believes now is not a good time.  This includes most Liberal
for Fair Voting people; specifically Brenden, Philip, and Sherri Iona.
Lots more of course.

On Tue, Aug 8, 2017 at 12:15 PM, Anita Nickerson <anitann88 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> You've just forgotten it, Jenn (welcome to my memory world). They had to
> produce something at the right time that contradicted all the evidence of
> months and years (which they hurried to bury as fast as they could), so
> they put out a question so vague that most people who picked up the phone
> wouldn't know if they were talking about still voting by secret ballot in
> your local gym with pencils. Then they said that meant people like FPTP.
> Then they misled MPs to say this is what Canadians think. I am sure even
> Bardish was quoting this poll.
>
> Anita
>
> *Subject:* HillTimes article regarding voting reform
> More Canadians favour keeping first-past-the-post than don’t, except in
> B.C.: poll
> Well-off, highly-educated voters lean towards electoral reform.
>
> Democratic Institutions Minister Karina Gould, pictured earlier this year,
> announced Feb. 1 that the Liberal government wouldn't pursue its campaign
> promise to change the electoral system. *The Hill Times photograph by
> Jake Wright*
>
> By PETER MAZEREEUW
>
> PUBLISHED : Thursday, March 9, 2017 4:51 PM
>
> More Canadians support the government’s decision not to change Canada’s
> voting system than oppose it, a new poll
> <http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2678/voting-system> suggests.
>
> Toronto-based Forum Research asked 1,340 Canadian voters across the
> country if they “support the federal government’s decision to keep
> Canadian voting procedures the same” between Feb. 24 and 26. A plurality,
> 45 per cent, said that they do, while 38 per cent said they do not, and 17
> per cent said they weren’t sure.
>
> Voters who want Canada’s electoral system changed are more likely to be
> well educated, highly paid, and support the smallest parties in the House,
> the results of the automated phone survey indicated.
>
> They are also in the minority everywhere except in B.C.
>
>
>
>
>
> The poll results were weighted to be representative of Canada’s
> population and are considered accurate within three per cent, 19 times out
> of 20 for the total sample size, while sub-samples are less accurate,
> according to the polling firm.
>
> “The plurality of people surveyed favour keeping the current
> first-past-the-post system; still, almost four in ten disagree with the
> decision keep it, so it’s not an expansive margin,” Lorne Bozinoff, Forum
> Research president, was quoted as saying in the firm’s poll release. “It
> will be worth watching to see if the opposition can use electoral reform as
> a wedge issue to drive voters away from the Liberals.”
>
> More respondents agreed with keeping the current system than disagreed in
> Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and the Prairies, including Alberta,
> where support for keeping the current voting system was strongest, at 53
> per cent (34 per cent said no, while 13 per cent said they didn’t know in
> that province.)
>
> Next door in B.C., it was a different story. Just 37 per cent said they
> agreed with the decision not to change Canada’s electoral system, while 44
> per cent said they did not agree, and 19 per cent said they didn’t know.
>
>
>
>
>
> The Liberal government was elected on a promise to change Canada’s
> first-past-the-post electoral system before the next federal election in
> 2019. Under the current system, electoral districts are won by whoever gets
> the most votes. In a three-plus-party system, that means parties can, and
> do, win powerful majority governments with support from less than half of
> those who voted, leading some to criticize the system as unfair or
> unrepresentative of the public’s will.
>
> The Liberals reversed themselves on that promise after rocketing from
> third-party status to a 184-seat majority government in 2015, winning 39.5
> per cent of the vote. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) and
> his cabinet ministers defended the decision not to change the electoral
> system by saying that they believed there was no consensus among Canadians
> for a new system.
>
> The Forum Research poll showed that Conservative and Liberal supporters
> were almost equally likely to support the government’s decision, with 53
> and 54 per cent, respectively, saying they did, while 33 and 31 per cent
> said they did not, and 14 and 16 per cent said they didn’t know.
>
> The opposite was true of Green, NDP, and Bloc Québécois supporters. Only
> about a quarter of those who preferred the Greens (24 per cent) and NDP (25
> per cent) supported the government’s decision, while 40 per cent of Bloc
> supporters did, in each case fewer than those who opposed it. Supporters of
> other parties were also more likely to oppose the government’s decision (41
> per cent) than support it (23 per cent).
>
>
> More Canadians supported the government’s decision than did not in the
> 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and above-65 age brackets, with support highest among
> the oldest bracket at 54 per cent in favour, 29 per cent against, and 16
> per cent unsure.
>
> Young voters aged 18-34, however, were more likely to oppose the
> government’s decision to keep the voting system the same. Thirty-six per
> cent agreed with the decision while 46 per cent did not, and 17 per cent
> were unsure.
>
> Respondents earning between $80,000 and $100,000 per year were more likely
> to oppose the status quo (41 per cent) than support it (38 per cent). Those
> earning between $100,000 and $250,000 were evenly split at 44 per cent for
> and against, and those in the remaining income brackets were more likely to
> support the government’s decision. That support was strongest among those
> earning less than $20,000 per year, at 51 per cent, with 26 per cent
> opposed, and 23 per cent saying they didn’t know.
>
> Voters who had completed college or university were more likely to oppose
> the government’s reversal (44 per cent) than support it (42 per cent), and
> opposition was stronger among those who had completed postgraduate studies,
> with 46 per cent against, 39 per cent for, and 14 per cent unsure.
>
> Conversely, exactly half of voters with a high school education or less
> said they supported the government’s decision, while 22 per cent opposed
> it, and 27 per cent said they didn’t know. Fifty-one per cent of voters with
> some college or university supported the decision, while 32 per cent did
> not, and 17 per cent said they didn’t know.
>
> *peter at hilltimes.com <peter at hilltimes.com>*
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, Aug 8, 2017 at 12:02 PM, Jennifer Ross <2jennross at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> No, I don't know of this forum poll.  But if they have something to hang
>> their hat on, okay then.
>>
>> On Tue, Aug 8, 2017 at 11:52 AM, Anita Nickerson <anitann88 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Remember as soon as Trudeau canned PR they paid I think it was Forum to
>>> run a poll asking if people "supported the government to retain voting
>>> procedures" or something like that and most said yes, then the government
>>> MPs went around saying people like FPTP. That's probably where he's getting
>>> his information, just like they wanted. Yes, ask for his sources :)
>>>
>>> Anita
>>>
>>> On Tue, Aug 8, 2017 at 8:29 AM, David Dolson <ddolson at golden.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> I am writing to him.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> -Dave
>>>> *From: *Anita Nickerson
>>>> *Sent: *Tuesday, August 8, 2017 1:45 AM
>>>> *To: *FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
>>>> *Reply To: *FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
>>>> *Subject: *[fvc-wat-disc] Column by Geoffrey Stevens
>>>>
>>>> https://www.therecord.com/opinion-story/7490755-time-for-tru
>>>> deau-to-get-back-to-work/
>>>>
>>>> When somebody says something that you can 100% objectively verify is
>>>> untrue, can we not ask for some kind of correction?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *the largest number said they thought they preferred the existing
>>>> first-past-the-post system, perhaps with tweaks. *
>>>>
>>>> This columnist has not even looked at the report of the ERRE, showing
>>>> 87% of the public were for PR. He obviously heard what some Liberal MP said
>>>> and took that as a fact. Which is exactly what they want - to rewrite
>>>> history so everybody thinks that's what came out of the report.
>>>>
>>>> Here are stats from the ERRE: http://www.fairvote.ca/strong-mandate/
>>>>
>>>> Anita
>>>>
>>>>
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>>>
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>>
>>
>> --
>> No other Western democratic country concentrates as much political power in
>> the hands of one person as Canada does with her Prime Minister.
>>
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>

-- 
No other Western democratic country concentrates as much political power in
the hands of one person as Canada does with her Prime Minister.
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