[fvc-wat-disc] Column by Geoffrey Stevens

Tue Aug 8 12:15:53 EDT 2017

You've just forgotten it, Jenn (welcome to my memory world). They had to
produce something at the right time that contradicted all the evidence of
months and years (which they hurried to bury as fast as they could), so
they put out a question so vague that most people who picked up the phone
wouldn't know if they were talking about still voting by secret ballot in
your local gym with pencils. Then they said that meant people like FPTP.
Then they misled MPs to say this is what Canadians think. I am sure even
Bardish was quoting this poll.

Anita

*Subject:* HillTimes article regarding voting reform
More Canadians favour keeping first-past-the-post than don’t, except in
B.C.: poll
Well-off, highly-educated voters lean towards electoral reform.

Democratic Institutions Minister Karina Gould, pictured earlier this year,
announced Feb. 1 that the Liberal government wouldn't pursue its campaign
promise to change the electoral system. *The Hill Times photograph by Jake
Wright*

By PETER MAZEREEUW

PUBLISHED : Thursday, March 9, 2017 4:51 PM

More Canadians support the government’s decision not to change Canada’s
voting system than oppose it, a new poll
<http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2678/voting-system> suggests.

Toronto-based Forum Research asked 1,340 Canadian voters across the country
if they “support the federal government’s decision to keep Canadian voting
procedures the same” between Feb. 24 and 26. A plurality, 45 per cent, said
that they do, while 38 per cent said they do not, and 17 per cent said they
weren’t sure.

Voters who want Canada’s electoral system changed are more likely to be
well educated, highly paid, and support the smallest parties in the House,
the results of the automated phone survey indicated.

They are also in the minority everywhere except in B.C.

The poll results were weighted to be representative of Canada’s population
and are considered accurate within three per cent, 19 times out of 20 for
the total sample size, while sub-samples are less accurate, according to
the polling firm.

“The plurality of people surveyed favour keeping the current
first-past-the-post system; still, almost four in ten disagree with the
decision keep it, so it’s not an expansive margin,” Lorne Bozinoff, Forum
Research president, was quoted as saying in the firm’s poll release. “It
will be worth watching to see if the opposition can use electoral reform as
a wedge issue to drive voters away from the Liberals.”

More respondents agreed with keeping the current system than disagreed in
Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and the Prairies, including Alberta,
where support for keeping the current voting system was strongest, at 53
per cent (34 per cent said no, while 13 per cent said they didn’t know in
that province.)

Next door in B.C., it was a different story. Just 37 per cent said they
agreed with the decision not to change Canada’s electoral system, while 44
per cent said they did not agree, and 19 per cent said they didn’t know.

The Liberal government was elected on a promise to change Canada’s
first-past-the-post electoral system before the next federal election in
2019. Under the current system, electoral districts are won by whoever gets
the most votes. In a three-plus-party system, that means parties can, and
do, win powerful majority governments with support from less than half of
those who voted, leading some to criticize the system as unfair or
unrepresentative of the public’s will.

The Liberals reversed themselves on that promise after rocketing from
third-party status to a 184-seat majority government in 2015, winning 39.5
per cent of the vote. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) and
his cabinet ministers defended the decision not to change the electoral
system by saying that they believed there was no consensus among Canadians
for a new system.

The Forum Research poll showed that Conservative and Liberal supporters
were almost equally likely to support the government’s decision, with 53
and 54 per cent, respectively, saying they did, while 33 and 31 per cent
said they did not, and 14 and 16 per cent said they didn’t know.

The opposite was true of Green, NDP, and Bloc Québécois supporters. Only
about a quarter of those who preferred the Greens (24 per cent) and NDP (25
per cent) supported the government’s decision, while 40 per cent of Bloc
supporters did, in each case fewer than those who opposed it. Supporters of
other parties were also more likely to oppose the government’s decision (41
per cent) than support it (23 per cent).

More Canadians supported the government’s decision than did not in the
35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and above-65 age brackets, with support highest among
the oldest bracket at 54 per cent in favour, 29 per cent against, and 16
per cent unsure.

Young voters aged 18-34, however, were more likely to oppose the
government’s decision to keep the voting system the same. Thirty-six per
cent agreed with the decision while 46 per cent did not, and 17 per cent
were unsure.

Respondents earning between $80,000 and $100,000 per year were more likely
to oppose the status quo (41 per cent) than support it (38 per cent). Those
earning between $100,000 and $250,000 were evenly split at 44 per cent for
and against, and those in the remaining income brackets were more likely to
support the government’s decision. That support was strongest among those
earning less than $20,000 per year, at 51 per cent, with 26 per cent
opposed, and 23 per cent saying they didn’t know.

Voters who had completed college or university were more likely to oppose
the government’s reversal (44 per cent) than support it (42 per cent), and
opposition was stronger among those who had completed postgraduate studies,
with 46 per cent against, 39 per cent for, and 14 per cent unsure.

Conversely, exactly half of voters with a high school education or less
said they supported the government’s decision, while 22 per cent opposed
it, and 27 per cent said they didn’t know. Fifty-one per cent of voters with
some college or university supported the decision, while 32 per cent did
not, and 17 per cent said they didn’t know.

*peter at hilltimes.com <peter at hilltimes.com>*

On Tue, Aug 8, 2017 at 12:02 PM, Jennifer Ross <2jennross at gmail.com> wrote:

> No, I don't know of this forum poll.  But if they have something to hang
> their hat on, okay then.
>
> On Tue, Aug 8, 2017 at 11:52 AM, Anita Nickerson <anitann88 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Remember as soon as Trudeau canned PR they paid I think it was Forum to
>> run a poll asking if people "supported the government to retain voting
>> procedures" or something like that and most said yes, then the government
>> MPs went around saying people like FPTP. That's probably where he's getting
>> his information, just like they wanted. Yes, ask for his sources :)
>>
>> Anita
>>
>> On Tue, Aug 8, 2017 at 8:29 AM, David Dolson <ddolson at golden.net> wrote:
>>
>>> I am writing to him.
>>>
>>>
>>> -Dave
>>> *From: *Anita Nickerson
>>> *Sent: *Tuesday, August 8, 2017 1:45 AM
>>> *To: *FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
>>> *Reply To: *FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
>>> *Subject: *[fvc-wat-disc] Column by Geoffrey Stevens
>>>
>>> https://www.therecord.com/opinion-story/7490755-time-for-tru
>>> deau-to-get-back-to-work/
>>>
>>> When somebody says something that you can 100% objectively verify is
>>> untrue, can we not ask for some kind of correction?
>>>
>>>
>>> *the largest number said they thought they preferred the existing
>>> first-past-the-post system, perhaps with tweaks. *
>>>
>>> This columnist has not even looked at the report of the ERRE, showing
>>> 87% of the public were for PR. He obviously heard what some Liberal MP said
>>> and took that as a fact. Which is exactly what they want - to rewrite
>>> history so everybody thinks that's what came out of the report.
>>>
>>> Here are stats from the ERRE: http://www.fairvote.ca/strong-mandate/
>>>
>>> Anita
>>>
>>>
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>
>
> --
> No other Western democratic country concentrates as much political power in
> the hands of one person as Canada does with her Prime Minister.
>
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