[fvc-wat-disc] fvc-wat-disc Digest, Vol 111, Issue 5
Eleanor Grant
eleanor7000 at gmail.com
Wed Jun 6 21:39:32 EDT 2018
Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford:
Sharon, there was an earlier interview with Erin Kelly on The Agenda, in
which she explained Polly's methodology and past success in predicting
Trudeau, Brexit, and Trump.
If you guys are better at Google searching than I am, maybe you can find
it. It was very revealing.
Eleanor
On 6 Jun 2018 08:58, <fvc-wat-disc-request at listserv.thinkers.org> wrote:
> Send fvc-wat-disc mailing list submissions to
> fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>
> To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit
> http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
> or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to
> fvc-wat-disc-request at listserv.thinkers.org
>
> You can reach the person managing the list at
> fvc-wat-disc-owner at listserv.thinkers.org
>
> When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific
> than "Re: Contents of fvc-wat-disc digest..."
>
> Today's Topics:
>
> 1. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Catherine Campbell)
> 2. Fwd: Rob Ford?s widow sues Doug Ford, alleging he has
> deprived her and her children of millions | The Star
> (Catherine Campbell)
> 3. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Dave Arthur)
> 4. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Kevin Smith)
> 5. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Jennifer Ross)
> 6. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Anita Nickerson)
> 7. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Dave Arthur)
>
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
> To: David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com>, FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <
> fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 15:32:00 -0400
> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
> Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the
> Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t
> remember the PC percent of the popular vote.
>
> On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
>
> On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR,
> speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may
> be able to move the needle in the future.
>
> David
>
>
> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
> This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is
> the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did
> this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20%
> of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
> (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
> motivation for change.
>
> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
> wrote:
>
> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think
> she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large
> computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
> cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
> accuracy there.
>
> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the
> term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of
> something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that.
> Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll
> tracker this afternoon.
>
> *Party* *Popular Vote * *Proportional Seats* *Projected Seats* *Power of
> a Vote*
> NDP 0.361 45 48
> 1.067
> PC 0.376 47 74 1.574
> Lib 0.199 25 2
> 0.080
> Grn 0.050 6 0 0.000
> Oth 0.014 2 0 0.000
>
> 1.000 124 124
>
> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
> won't count.
>
> Evan
>
>
> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>
> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
> necessity.
>
> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
> straws?
>
> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and
> how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>
> Hopefully yours,
> Sharon
>
> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> Hello Fair Voters:
>
> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
> aren't grasping this!
>
> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
> It's a must-see.
>
> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>
> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>
> Eleanor
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
> To: "Fair Vote Canada FV: Anita Nickerson" <
> fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 15:32:38 -0400
> Subject: [fvc-wat-disc] Fwd: Rob Ford’s widow sues Doug Ford, alleging he
> has deprived her and her children of millions | The Star
>
>
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> *From:* Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
> *Date:* June 4, 2018 at 9:42:17 PM EDT
> *To:* Sharon Sommerville <sharonsommerville at gmail.com>, Jenn Ross <
> jenn at jenniferross.ca>, Cathy MacLellan <cathymaclellan at me.com>
> *Subject:* *Rob Ford’s widow sues Doug Ford, alleging he has deprived her
> and her children of millions | The Star*
>
> I thought you might be interested in this story from the Toronto Star.
> https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/04/rob-fords-
> widow-sues-doug-ford-alleging-he-has-deprived-them-of-millions.html
>
>
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net>
> To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>,
> David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 15:36:35 -0400
> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>
> I think a good project would be to look back at federal and provincial
> elections and dig out the most distorted vote % / seat % examples there
> have ever been.
>
> Maybe I’ll take that on.
>
> Dave A
>
>
>
> Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for
> Windows 10
>
>
>
> *From: *Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
> *Sent: *Tuesday, June 5, 2018 3:32 PM
> *To: *David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com>; FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
> <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
> *Subject: *Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>
>
>
> Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the
> Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t
> remember the PC percent of the popular vote.
>
>
> On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
>
> On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR,
> speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may
> be able to move the needle in the future.
>
>
>
> David
>
>
>
> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is
> the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did
> this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20%
> of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
> (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
> motivation for change.
>
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
> wrote:
>
> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think
> she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large
> computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
> cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
> accuracy there.
>
> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the
> term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of
> something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that.
> Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll
> tracker this afternoon.
>
> *Party*
>
> *Popular Vote *
>
> *Proportional Seats*
>
> *Projected Seats*
>
> *Power of a Vote*
>
> NDP
>
> 0.361
>
> 45
>
> 48
>
> 1.067
>
> PC
>
> 0.376
>
> 47
>
> 74
>
> 1.574
>
> Lib
>
> 0.199
>
> 25
>
> 2
>
> 0.080
>
> Grn
>
> 0.050
>
> 6
>
> 0
>
> 0.000
>
> Oth
>
> 0.014
>
> 2
>
> 0
>
> 0.000
>
> 1.000
>
> 124
>
> 124
>
>
> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
> won't count.
>
> Evan
>
>
> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>
> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
> necessity.
>
>
>
> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
> straws?
>
>
>
> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and
> how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>
>
>
> Hopefully yours,
>
> Sharon
>
>
>
> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> Hello Fair Voters:
>
>
>
> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
> aren't grasping this!
>
>
>
> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>
> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>
> It's a must-see.
>
>
>
> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>
>
>
> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>
>
>
> Eleanor
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
>
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
>
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Kevin Smith <kevedsmith at gmail.com>
> To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 17:15:37 -0400
> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
> For PCs in 1993, it was 2 seats and 18% of the vote. Jean Charest and
> Elsie Wayne were the two.
>
> That same election, Ontario was solidly Liberal because of PC and Reform
> splitting the vote. BQ became official opposition with over 50 seats, and
> a small vote percentage. Reform was just behind them. Their vote was
> still concentrated in the West.
>
> Kevin
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018, 3:32 PM Catherine Campbell, <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the
>> Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t
>> remember the PC percent of the popular vote.
>>
>> On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
>>
>> On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR,
>> speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may
>> be able to move the needle in the future.
>>
>> David
>>
>>
>> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>> This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is
>> the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did
>> this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20%
>> of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
>> (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
>> motivation for change.
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think
>> she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large
>> computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
>> cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
>> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
>> accuracy there.
>>
>> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the
>> term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of
>> something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that.
>> Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll
>> tracker this afternoon.
>>
>> *Party* *Popular Vote * *Proportional Seats* *Projected Seats* *Power of
>> a Vote*
>> NDP 0.361 45 48
>> 1.067
>> PC 0.376 47 74 1.574
>> Lib 0.199 25 2
>> 0.080
>> Grn 0.050 6 0 0.000
>> Oth 0.014 2 0 0.000
>>
>> 1.000 124 124
>>
>> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
>> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
>> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
>> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
>> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
>> won't count.
>>
>> Evan
>>
>>
>> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>>
>> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
>> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
>> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
>> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
>> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
>> necessity.
>>
>> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
>> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
>> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
>> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
>> straws?
>>
>> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works
>> and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
>> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>>
>> Hopefully yours,
>> Sharon
>>
>> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Hello Fair Voters:
>>
>> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
>> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
>> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
>> aren't grasping this!
>>
>> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>> It's a must-see.
>>
>> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
>> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>>
>> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>>
>> Eleanor
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
>> listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
>> listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
>> listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
>> listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
>> listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Jennifer Ross <2jennross at gmail.com>
> To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 21:47:55 -0400
> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
> Evan, this is fabulous. How quickly do you think you could do a similar
> efficiency model from the actual election results?
>
> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:31 PM, Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
> wrote:
>
>> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think
>> she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large
>> computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
>> cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
>> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
>> accuracy there.
>>
>> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the
>> term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of
>> something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that.
>> Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll
>> tracker this afternoon.
>>
>> *Party* *Popular Vote * *Proportional Seats* *Projected Seats* *Power of
>> a Vote*
>> NDP 0.361 45 48
>> 1.067
>> PC 0.376 47 74 1.574
>> Lib 0.199 25 2
>> 0.080
>> Grn 0.050 6 0 0.000
>> Oth 0.014 2 0 0.000
>>
>> 1.000 124 124
>>
>> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
>> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
>> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
>> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
>> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
>> won't count.
>>
>> Evan
>>
>>
>>
>> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>>
>> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
>> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
>> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
>> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
>> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
>> necessity.
>>
>> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
>> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
>> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
>> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
>> straws?
>>
>> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works
>> and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
>> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>>
>> Hopefully yours,
>> Sharon
>>
>> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Hello Fair Voters:
>>>
>>> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
>>> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
>>> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
>>> aren't grasping this!
>>>
>>> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>>> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>>> It's a must-see.
>>>
>>> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
>>> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>>>
>>> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>>>
>>> Eleanor
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> No other Western democratic country concentrates as much political power in
> the hands of one person as Canada does with her Prime Minister.
>
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Anita Nickerson <anitann88 at gmail.com>
> To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Wed, 6 Jun 2018 01:01:53 -0400
> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
> We have all the elections results on google drive if you want.
>
> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 3:36 PM, Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net> wrote:
>
>> I think a good project would be to look back at federal and provincial
>> elections and dig out the most distorted vote % / seat % examples there
>> have ever been.
>>
>> Maybe I’ll take that on.
>>
>> Dave A
>>
>>
>>
>> Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for
>> Windows 10
>>
>>
>>
>> *From: *Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
>> *Sent: *Tuesday, June 5, 2018 3:32 PM
>> *To: *David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com>; FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
>> <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
>> *Subject: *Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>>
>>
>>
>> Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the
>> Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t
>> remember the PC percent of the popular vote.
>>
>>
>> On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
>>
>> On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR,
>> speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may
>> be able to move the needle in the future.
>>
>>
>>
>> David
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is
>> the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did
>> this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20%
>> of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
>> (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
>> motivation for change.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think
>> she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large
>> computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
>> cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
>> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
>> accuracy there.
>>
>> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the
>> term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of
>> something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that.
>> Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll
>> tracker this afternoon.
>>
>> *Party*
>>
>> *Popular Vote *
>>
>> *Proportional Seats*
>>
>> *Projected Seats*
>>
>> *Power of a Vote*
>>
>> NDP
>>
>> 0.361
>>
>> 45
>>
>> 48
>>
>> 1.067
>>
>> PC
>>
>> 0.376
>>
>> 47
>>
>> 74
>>
>> 1.574
>>
>> Lib
>>
>> 0.199
>>
>> 25
>>
>> 2
>>
>> 0.080
>>
>> Grn
>>
>> 0.050
>>
>> 6
>>
>> 0
>>
>> 0.000
>>
>> Oth
>>
>> 0.014
>>
>> 2
>>
>> 0
>>
>> 0.000
>>
>> 1.000
>>
>> 124
>>
>> 124
>>
>>
>> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
>> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
>> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
>> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
>> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
>> won't count.
>>
>> Evan
>>
>>
>> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>>
>> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
>> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
>> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
>> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
>> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
>> necessity.
>>
>>
>>
>> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
>> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
>> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
>> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
>> straws?
>>
>>
>>
>> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and
>> how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
>> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>>
>>
>>
>> Hopefully yours,
>>
>> Sharon
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Hello Fair Voters:
>>
>>
>>
>> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
>> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
>> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
>> aren't grasping this!
>>
>>
>>
>> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>>
>> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>>
>> It's a must-see.
>>
>>
>>
>> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
>> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>>
>>
>>
>> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>>
>>
>>
>> Eleanor
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>>
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> *Proportional representation delivers more of what YOU voted for!*
> Sign the Declaration: www.fairvote.ca/declaration
>
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net>
> To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Wed, 6 Jun 2018 08:57:35 -0400
> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>
> Where do I find them?
>
>
>
> Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for
> Windows 10
>
>
>
> *From: *Anita Nickerson <anitann88 at gmail.com>
> *Sent: *Wednesday, June 6, 2018 1:01 AM
> *To: *FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
> *Subject: *Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>
>
>
> We have all the elections results on google drive if you want.
>
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 3:36 PM, Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net> wrote:
>
> I think a good project would be to look back at federal and provincial
> elections and dig out the most distorted vote % / seat % examples there
> have ever been.
>
> Maybe I’ll take that on.
>
> Dave A
>
>
>
> Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for
> Windows 10
>
>
>
> *From: *Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
> *Sent: *Tuesday, June 5, 2018 3:32 PM
> *To: *David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com>; FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
> <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
> *Subject: *Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>
>
>
> Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the
> Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t
> remember the PC percent of the popular vote.
>
>
> On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
>
> On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR,
> speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may
> be able to move the needle in the future.
>
>
>
> David
>
>
>
> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is
> the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did
> this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20%
> of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
> (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
> motivation for change.
>
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
> wrote:
>
> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think
> she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large
> computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
> cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
> accuracy there.
>
> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the
> term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of
> something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that.
> Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll
> tracker this afternoon.
>
> *Party*
>
> *Popular Vote *
>
> *Proportional Seats*
>
> *Projected Seats*
>
> *Power of a Vote*
>
> NDP
>
> 0.361
>
> 45
>
> 48
>
> 1.067
>
> PC
>
> 0.376
>
> 47
>
> 74
>
> 1.574
>
> Lib
>
> 0.199
>
> 25
>
> 2
>
> 0.080
>
> Grn
>
> 0.050
>
> 6
>
> 0
>
> 0.000
>
> Oth
>
> 0.014
>
> 2
>
> 0
>
> 0.000
>
> 1.000
>
> 124
>
> 124
>
>
> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
> won't count.
>
> Evan
>
>
> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>
> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
> necessity.
>
>
>
> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
> straws?
>
>
>
> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and
> how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>
>
>
> Hopefully yours,
>
> Sharon
>
>
>
> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> Hello Fair Voters:
>
>
>
> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
> aren't grasping this!
>
>
>
> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>
> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>
> It's a must-see.
>
>
>
> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>
>
>
> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>
>
>
> Eleanor
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
>
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> *Proportional representation delivers more of what YOU voted for!*
>
> Sign the Declaration: www.fairvote.ca/declaration
>
>
>
> ...
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listserv.thinkers.org/pipermail/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org/attachments/20180606/f3d155cc/attachment-0001.htm>
More information about the fvc-wat-disc
mailing list