[fvc-wat-disc] fvc-wat-disc Digest, Vol 111, Issue 5
Sharon Sommerville
sharonsommerville at gmail.com
Thu Jun 7 08:11:00 EDT 2018
Thank you Eleanor. I will look for it and send the link around if it is
found.
On Wed, Jun 6, 2018 at 9:39 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com> wrote:
> Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford:
> Sharon, there was an earlier interview with Erin Kelly on The Agenda, in
> which she explained Polly's methodology and past success in predicting
> Trudeau, Brexit, and Trump.
> If you guys are better at Google searching than I am, maybe you can find
> it. It was very revealing.
>
> Eleanor
>
>
> On 6 Jun 2018 08:58, <fvc-wat-disc-request at listserv.thinkers.org> wrote:
>
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>> Today's Topics:
>>
>> 1. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Catherine Campbell)
>> 2. Fwd: Rob Ford?s widow sues Doug Ford, alleging he has
>> deprived her and her children of millions | The Star
>> (Catherine Campbell)
>> 3. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Dave Arthur)
>> 4. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Kevin Smith)
>> 5. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Jennifer Ross)
>> 6. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Anita Nickerson)
>> 7. Re: Even NDP win won't stop Ford (Dave Arthur)
>>
>>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>> From: Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
>> To: David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com>, FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <
>> fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
>> Cc:
>> Bcc:
>> Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 15:32:00 -0400
>> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>> Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the
>> Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t
>> remember the PC percent of the popular vote.
>>
>> On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
>>
>> On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR,
>> speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may
>> be able to move the needle in the future.
>>
>> David
>>
>>
>> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>> This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is
>> the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did
>> this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20%
>> of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
>> (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
>> motivation for change.
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think
>> she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large
>> computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
>> cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
>> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
>> accuracy there.
>>
>> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the
>> term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of
>> something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that.
>> Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll
>> tracker this afternoon.
>>
>> *Party* *Popular Vote * *Proportional Seats* *Projected Seats* *Power of
>> a Vote*
>> NDP 0.361 45 48
>> 1.067
>> PC 0.376 47 74 1.574
>> Lib 0.199 25 2
>> 0.080
>> Grn 0.050 6 0 0.000
>> Oth 0.014 2 0 0.000
>>
>> 1.000 124 124
>>
>> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
>> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
>> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
>> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
>> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
>> won't count.
>>
>> Evan
>>
>>
>> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>>
>> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
>> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
>> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
>> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
>> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
>> necessity.
>>
>> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
>> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
>> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
>> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
>> straws?
>>
>> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works
>> and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
>> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>>
>> Hopefully yours,
>> Sharon
>>
>> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Hello Fair Voters:
>>
>> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
>> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
>> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
>> aren't grasping this!
>>
>> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>> It's a must-see.
>>
>> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
>> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>>
>> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>>
>> Eleanor
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
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>>
>> _______________________________________________
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>> _______________________________________________
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>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
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>>
>>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>> From: Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
>> To: "Fair Vote Canada FV: Anita Nickerson" <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.
>> thinkers.org>
>> Cc:
>> Bcc:
>> Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 15:32:38 -0400
>> Subject: [fvc-wat-disc] Fwd: Rob Ford’s widow sues Doug Ford, alleging he
>> has deprived her and her children of millions | The Star
>>
>>
>>
>> Begin forwarded message:
>>
>> *From:* Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
>> *Date:* June 4, 2018 at 9:42:17 PM EDT
>> *To:* Sharon Sommerville <sharonsommerville at gmail.com>, Jenn Ross <
>> jenn at jenniferross.ca>, Cathy MacLellan <cathymaclellan at me.com>
>> *Subject:* *Rob Ford’s widow sues Doug Ford, alleging he has deprived
>> her and her children of millions | The Star*
>>
>> I thought you might be interested in this story from the Toronto Star.
>> https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/04/rob-fords-wid
>> ow-sues-doug-ford-alleging-he-has-deprived-them-of-millions.html
>>
>>
>>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>> From: Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net>
>> To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>,
>> David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com>
>> Cc:
>> Bcc:
>> Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 15:36:35 -0400
>> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>>
>> I think a good project would be to look back at federal and provincial
>> elections and dig out the most distorted vote % / seat % examples there
>> have ever been.
>>
>> Maybe I’ll take that on.
>>
>> Dave A
>>
>>
>>
>> Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for
>> Windows 10
>>
>>
>>
>> *From: *Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
>> *Sent: *Tuesday, June 5, 2018 3:32 PM
>> *To: *David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com>; FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
>> <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
>> *Subject: *Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>>
>>
>>
>> Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the
>> Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t
>> remember the PC percent of the popular vote.
>>
>>
>> On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
>>
>> On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR,
>> speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may
>> be able to move the needle in the future.
>>
>>
>>
>> David
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is
>> the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did
>> this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20%
>> of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
>> (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
>> motivation for change.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think
>> she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large
>> computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
>> cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
>> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
>> accuracy there.
>>
>> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the
>> term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of
>> something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that.
>> Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll
>> tracker this afternoon.
>>
>> *Party*
>>
>> *Popular Vote *
>>
>> *Proportional Seats*
>>
>> *Projected Seats*
>>
>> *Power of a Vote*
>>
>> NDP
>>
>> 0.361
>>
>> 45
>>
>> 48
>>
>> 1.067
>>
>> PC
>>
>> 0.376
>>
>> 47
>>
>> 74
>>
>> 1.574
>>
>> Lib
>>
>> 0.199
>>
>> 25
>>
>> 2
>>
>> 0.080
>>
>> Grn
>>
>> 0.050
>>
>> 6
>>
>> 0
>>
>> 0.000
>>
>> Oth
>>
>> 0.014
>>
>> 2
>>
>> 0
>>
>> 0.000
>>
>> 1.000
>>
>> 124
>>
>> 124
>>
>>
>> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
>> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
>> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
>> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
>> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
>> won't count.
>>
>> Evan
>>
>>
>> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>>
>> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
>> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
>> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
>> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
>> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
>> necessity.
>>
>>
>>
>> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
>> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
>> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
>> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
>> straws?
>>
>>
>>
>> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and
>> how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
>> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>>
>>
>>
>> Hopefully yours,
>>
>> Sharon
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Hello Fair Voters:
>>
>>
>>
>> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
>> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
>> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
>> aren't grasping this!
>>
>>
>>
>> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>>
>> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>>
>> It's a must-see.
>>
>>
>>
>> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
>> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>>
>>
>>
>> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>>
>>
>>
>> Eleanor
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>>
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>> From: Kevin Smith <kevedsmith at gmail.com>
>> To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
>> Cc:
>> Bcc:
>> Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 17:15:37 -0400
>> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>> For PCs in 1993, it was 2 seats and 18% of the vote. Jean Charest and
>> Elsie Wayne were the two.
>>
>> That same election, Ontario was solidly Liberal because of PC and Reform
>> splitting the vote. BQ became official opposition with over 50 seats, and
>> a small vote percentage. Reform was just behind them. Their vote was
>> still concentrated in the West.
>>
>> Kevin
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018, 3:32 PM Catherine Campbell, <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the
>>> Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t
>>> remember the PC percent of the popular vote.
>>>
>>> On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of
>>> PR, speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we
>>> may be able to move the needle in the future.
>>>
>>> David
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>> This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is
>>> the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did
>>> this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20%
>>> of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
>>> (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
>>> motivation for change.
>>>
>>> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I
>>> think she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very
>>> large computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence
>>> is cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
>>> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
>>> accuracy there.
>>>
>>> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find
>>> the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK
>>> because of something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth
>>> to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's
>>> poll tracker this afternoon.
>>>
>>> *Party* *Popular Vote * *Proportional Seats* *Projected Seats* *Power
>>> of a Vote*
>>> NDP 0.361 45 48
>>> 1.067
>>> PC 0.376 47 74 1.574
>>> Lib 0.199 25 2
>>> 0.080
>>> Grn 0.050 6 0 0.000
>>> Oth 0.014 2 0 0.000
>>>
>>> 1.000 124 124
>>>
>>> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
>>> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
>>> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
>>> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
>>> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
>>> won't count.
>>>
>>> Evan
>>>
>>>
>>> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>>>
>>> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
>>> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
>>> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
>>> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
>>> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
>>> necessity.
>>>
>>> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
>>> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
>>> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
>>> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
>>> straws?
>>>
>>> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works
>>> and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
>>> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>>>
>>> Hopefully yours,
>>> Sharon
>>>
>>> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Hello Fair Voters:
>>>
>>> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
>>> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
>>> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
>>> aren't grasping this!
>>>
>>> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>>> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>>> It's a must-see.
>>>
>>> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
>>> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>>>
>>> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>>>
>>> Eleanor
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>
>>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>> From: Jennifer Ross <2jennross at gmail.com>
>> To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
>> Cc:
>> Bcc:
>> Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2018 21:47:55 -0400
>> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>> Evan, this is fabulous. How quickly do you think you could do a similar
>> efficiency model from the actual election results?
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:31 PM, Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I
>>> think she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very
>>> large computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence
>>> is cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
>>> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
>>> accuracy there.
>>>
>>> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find
>>> the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK
>>> because of something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth
>>> to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's
>>> poll tracker this afternoon.
>>>
>>> *Party* *Popular Vote * *Proportional Seats* *Projected Seats* *Power
>>> of a Vote*
>>> NDP 0.361 45 48
>>> 1.067
>>> PC 0.376 47 74 1.574
>>> Lib 0.199 25 2
>>> 0.080
>>> Grn 0.050 6 0 0.000
>>> Oth 0.014 2 0 0.000
>>>
>>> 1.000 124 124
>>>
>>> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
>>> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
>>> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
>>> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
>>> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
>>> won't count.
>>>
>>> Evan
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>>>
>>> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
>>> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
>>> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
>>> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
>>> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
>>> necessity.
>>>
>>> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
>>> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
>>> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
>>> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
>>> straws?
>>>
>>> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works
>>> and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
>>> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>>>
>>> Hopefully yours,
>>> Sharon
>>>
>>> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Hello Fair Voters:
>>>>
>>>> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
>>>> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
>>>> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
>>>> aren't grasping this!
>>>>
>>>> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>>>> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>>>> It's a must-see.
>>>>
>>>> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
>>>> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>>>>
>>>> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>>>>
>>>> Eleanor
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> No other Western democratic country concentrates as much political power in
>> the hands of one person as Canada does with her Prime Minister.
>>
>>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>> From: Anita Nickerson <anitann88 at gmail.com>
>> To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
>> Cc:
>> Bcc:
>> Date: Wed, 6 Jun 2018 01:01:53 -0400
>> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>> We have all the elections results on google drive if you want.
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 3:36 PM, Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net> wrote:
>>
>>> I think a good project would be to look back at federal and provincial
>>> elections and dig out the most distorted vote % / seat % examples there
>>> have ever been.
>>>
>>> Maybe I’ll take that on.
>>>
>>> Dave A
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for
>>> Windows 10
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From: *Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
>>> *Sent: *Tuesday, June 5, 2018 3:32 PM
>>> *To: *David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com>; FVC Waterloo Region
>>> Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
>>> *Subject: *Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the
>>> Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t
>>> remember the PC percent of the popular vote.
>>>
>>>
>>> On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of
>>> PR, speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we
>>> may be able to move the needle in the future.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> David
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is
>>> the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did
>>> this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20%
>>> of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
>>> (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
>>> motivation for change.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I
>>> think she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very
>>> large computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence
>>> is cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
>>> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
>>> accuracy there.
>>>
>>> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find
>>> the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK
>>> because of something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth
>>> to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's
>>> poll tracker this afternoon.
>>>
>>> *Party*
>>>
>>> *Popular Vote *
>>>
>>> *Proportional Seats*
>>>
>>> *Projected Seats*
>>>
>>> *Power of a Vote*
>>>
>>> NDP
>>>
>>> 0.361
>>>
>>> 45
>>>
>>> 48
>>>
>>> 1.067
>>>
>>> PC
>>>
>>> 0.376
>>>
>>> 47
>>>
>>> 74
>>>
>>> 1.574
>>>
>>> Lib
>>>
>>> 0.199
>>>
>>> 25
>>>
>>> 2
>>>
>>> 0.080
>>>
>>> Grn
>>>
>>> 0.050
>>>
>>> 6
>>>
>>> 0
>>>
>>> 0.000
>>>
>>> Oth
>>>
>>> 0.014
>>>
>>> 2
>>>
>>> 0
>>>
>>> 0.000
>>>
>>> 1.000
>>>
>>> 124
>>>
>>> 124
>>>
>>>
>>> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
>>> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
>>> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
>>> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
>>> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
>>> won't count.
>>>
>>> Evan
>>>
>>>
>>> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>>>
>>> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
>>> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
>>> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
>>> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
>>> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
>>> necessity.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
>>> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
>>> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
>>> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
>>> straws?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works
>>> and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
>>> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Hopefully yours,
>>>
>>> Sharon
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Hello Fair Voters:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
>>> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
>>> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
>>> aren't grasping this!
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>>>
>>> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>>>
>>> It's a must-see.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
>>> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Eleanor
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>>
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>>
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/m
>>> ailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> *Proportional representation delivers more of what YOU voted for!*
>> Sign the Declaration: www.fairvote.ca/declaration
>>
>>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>> From: Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net>
>> To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
>> Cc:
>> Bcc:
>> Date: Wed, 6 Jun 2018 08:57:35 -0400
>> Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>>
>> Where do I find them?
>>
>>
>>
>> Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for
>> Windows 10
>>
>>
>>
>> *From: *Anita Nickerson <anitann88 at gmail.com>
>> *Sent: *Wednesday, June 6, 2018 1:01 AM
>> *To: *FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
>> *Subject: *Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>>
>>
>>
>> We have all the elections results on google drive if you want.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 3:36 PM, Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net> wrote:
>>
>> I think a good project would be to look back at federal and provincial
>> elections and dig out the most distorted vote % / seat % examples there
>> have ever been.
>>
>> Maybe I’ll take that on.
>>
>> Dave A
>>
>>
>>
>> Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for
>> Windows 10
>>
>>
>>
>> *From: *Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
>> *Sent: *Tuesday, June 5, 2018 3:32 PM
>> *To: *David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com>; FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
>> <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
>> *Subject: *Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>>
>>
>>
>> Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the
>> Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t
>> remember the PC percent of the popular vote.
>>
>>
>> On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
>>
>> On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR,
>> speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome. W BC, PEI and PQ we may
>> be able to move the needle in the future.
>>
>>
>>
>> David
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> This chart is horrifying. From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is
>> the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen. Sure the Liberal leadership did
>> this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20%
>> of Ontario voters. I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
>> (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
>> motivation for change.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think
>> she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large
>> computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
>> cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
>> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
>> accuracy there.
>>
>> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the
>> term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of
>> something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that.
>> Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll
>> tracker this afternoon.
>>
>> *Party*
>>
>> *Popular Vote *
>>
>> *Proportional Seats*
>>
>> *Projected Seats*
>>
>> *Power of a Vote*
>>
>> NDP
>>
>> 0.361
>>
>> 45
>>
>> 48
>>
>> 1.067
>>
>> PC
>>
>> 0.376
>>
>> 47
>>
>> 74
>>
>> 1.574
>>
>> Lib
>>
>> 0.199
>>
>> 25
>>
>> 2
>>
>> 0.080
>>
>> Grn
>>
>> 0.050
>>
>> 6
>>
>> 0
>>
>> 0.000
>>
>> Oth
>>
>> 0.014
>>
>> 2
>>
>> 0
>>
>> 0.000
>>
>> 1.000
>>
>> 124
>>
>> 124
>>
>>
>> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
>> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
>> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
>> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
>> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
>> won't count.
>>
>> Evan
>>
>>
>> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>>
>> Thank you Eleanor. The interview is certainly enlightening &
>> discouraging. If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
>> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
>> Ford win, not the voters. Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
>> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
>> necessity.
>>
>>
>>
>> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
>> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
>> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
>> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding? Or am I grasping desperately at
>> straws?
>>
>>
>>
>> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and
>> how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
>> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>>
>>
>>
>> Hopefully yours,
>>
>> Sharon
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Hello Fair Voters:
>>
>>
>>
>> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
>> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
>> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
>> aren't grasping this!
>>
>>
>>
>> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>>
>> https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>>
>> It's a must-see.
>>
>>
>>
>> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
>> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>>
>>
>>
>> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>>
>>
>>
>> Eleanor
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>>
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>>
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
>> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
>> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_l
>> istserv.thinkers.org
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> *Proportional representation delivers more of what YOU voted for!*
>>
>> Sign the Declaration: www.fairvote.ca/declaration
>>
>>
>>
>> ...
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
> Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
> Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_
> listserv.thinkers.org
>
>
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