[fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford

[Jay Judkowitz]

This chart is horrifying.  From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is the
most lopsided outcome I've ever seen.  Sure the Liberal leadership did this
to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20% of
Ontario voters.  I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
(plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
motivation for change.

On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca> wrote:

> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think
> she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large
> computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
> cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
> accuracy there.
>
> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the
> term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of
> something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that.
> Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll
> tracker this afternoon.
>
> *Party* *Popular Vote * *Proportional Seats* *Projected Seats* *Power of
> a Vote*
> NDP 0.361 45 48
> 1.067
> PC 0.376 47 74 1.574
> Lib 0.199 25 2
> 0.080
> Grn 0.050 6 0 0.000
> Oth 0.014 2 0 0.000
>
> 1.000 124 124
>
> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
> won't count.
>
> Evan
>
>
> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>
> Thank you Eleanor.  The interview is certainly enlightening &
> discouraging.  If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
> Ford win, not the voters.  Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
> necessity.
>
> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding?  Or am I grasping desperately at
> straws?
>
> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and
> how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>
> Hopefully yours,
> Sharon
>
> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Hello Fair Voters:
>>
>> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
>> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
>> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
>> aren't grasping this!
>>
>> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>>  https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>> It's a must-see.
>>
>> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
>> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>>
>> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>>
>> Eleanor
>>
>>
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