[fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford

[David dirks]

Evan, thank you for this analysis.
David 

    On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:32 PM, Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca> wrote:
 

  Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some accuracy there.
 
 Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll tracker this afternoon.
 
 
| Party | Popular Vote  | Proportional Seats | Projected Seats | Power of a Vote |
| NDP | 0.361 | 45 | 48
  | 1.067 |
| PC | 0.376 | 47 | 74 | 1.574 |
| Lib | 0.199 | 25 | 2
  | 0.080 |
| Grn | 0.050 | 6 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Oth | 0.014 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| 
  | 1.000 | 124 | 124 | 
  |

 
 The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly. But look at the Liberals. They also  have spread out votes, but 92% of them won't count.
 
 Evan
 
 
 On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
  
 Thank you Eleanor.  The interview is certainly enlightening & discouraging.  If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the Ford win, not the voters.  Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important necessity. 
  Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of threatening 19 Tamils in his riding?  Or am I grasping desperately at straws?   
  And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?  Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late. 
  Hopefully yours, Sharon  
 On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com> wrote:
 
  Hello Fair Voters:  
  Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People aren't grasping this!  
  See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:  https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1 It's a must-see.  
  I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.  
  NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.   
  Eleanor  
    
 ______________________________ _________________
 This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
 Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv. thinkers.org
 Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/ mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_ listserv.thinkers.org
 
 
  
  
  
 _______________________________________________
This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org
 
 
  _______________________________________________
This is the fvc-wat-disc mailing list
Post a message: fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org
Unsubscribe: http://listserv.thinkers.org/mailman/listinfo/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org


   
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listserv.thinkers.org/pipermail/fvc-wat-disc_listserv.thinkers.org/attachments/20180605/514f70e3/attachment-0002.htm>