[fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford

Wed Jun 6 10:15:40 EDT 2018

Here you go, Dave

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1RAQToMewB6QT6fcYHtHxGkY1hHbFV8ZS?usp=sharing

On Wed, Jun 6, 2018 at 8:57 AM, Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net> wrote:

> Where do I find them?
>
>
>
> Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for
> Windows 10
>
>
>
> *From: *Anita Nickerson <anitann88 at gmail.com>
> *Sent: *Wednesday, June 6, 2018 1:01 AM
> *To: *FVC Waterloo Region Discussion <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
>
> *Subject: *Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>
>
>
> We have all the elections results on google drive if you want.
>
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 3:36 PM, Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net> wrote:
>
> I think a good project would be to look back at federal and provincial
> elections and dig out the most distorted vote % / seat % examples there
> have ever been.
>
> Maybe I’ll take that on.
>
> Dave A
>
>
>
> Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for
> Windows 10
>
>
>
> *From: *Catherine Campbell <cdcampbell9 at gmail.com>
> *Sent: *Tuesday, June 5, 2018 3:32 PM
> *To: *David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com>; FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
> <fvc-wat-disc at listserv.thinkers.org>
> *Subject: *Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford
>
>
>
> Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the
> Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t
> remember the PC percent of the popular vote.
>
>
> On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
>
> On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR,
> speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome.  W BC, PEI and PQ we may
> be able to move the needle in the future.
>
>
>
> David
>
>
>
> On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> This chart is horrifying.  From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is
> the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen.  Sure the Liberal leadership did
> this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20%
> of Ontario voters.  I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it
> (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a
> motivation for change.
>
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca>
> wrote:
>
> Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think
> she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large
> computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is
> cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts
> seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some
> accuracy there.
>
> Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the
> term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of
> something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that.
> Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll
> tracker this afternoon.
>
> *Party*
>
> *Popular Vote *
>
> *Proportional Seats*
>
> *Projected Seats*
>
> *Power of a Vote*
>
> NDP
>
> 0.361
>
> 45
>
> 48
>
> 1.067
>
> PC
>
> 0.376
>
> 47
>
> 74
>
> 1.574
>
> Lib
>
> 0.199
>
> 25
>
> 2
>
> 0.080
>
> Grn
>
> 0.050
>
> 6
>
> 0
>
> 0.000
>
> Oth
>
> 0.014
>
> 2
>
> 0
>
> 0.000
>
> 1.000
>
> 124
>
> 124
>
>
> The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to
> Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for
> each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be
> efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly.
> But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them
> won't count.
>
> Evan
>
>
> On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
>
> Thank you Eleanor.  The interview is certainly enlightening &
> discouraging.  If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some
> people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the
> Ford win, not the voters.  Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be
> helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important
> necessity.
>
>
>
> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support
> in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that
> issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of
> threatening 19 Tamils in his riding?  Or am I grasping desperately at
> straws?
>
>
>
> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and
> how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?
> Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.
>
>
>
> Hopefully yours,
>
> Sharon
>
>
>
> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> Hello Fair Voters:
>
>
>
> Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She
> claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a
> Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People
> aren't grasping this!
>
>
>
> See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>
>  https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>
> It's a must-see.
>
>
>
> I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is
> solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>
>
>
> NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>
>
>
> Eleanor
>
>
>
>
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No other Western democratic country concentrates as much political power in
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