[fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford

Wed Jun 6 11:29:41 EDT 2018

Thanks. I’ll try to put together something.

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From: Jennifer Ross
Sent: Wednesday, June 6, 2018 10:15 AM
To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford

Here you go, Dave

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1RAQToMewB6QT6fcYHtHxGkY1hHbFV8ZS?usp=sharing

On Wed, Jun 6, 2018 at 8:57 AM, Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net> wrote:
Where do I find them?

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From: Anita Nickerson
Sent: Wednesday, June 6, 2018 1:01 AM
To: FVC Waterloo Region Discussion

Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford

We have all the elections results on google drive if you want.

On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 3:36 PM, Dave Arthur <arthurd23 at bell.net> wrote:
I think a good project would be to look back at federal and provincial elections and dig out the most distorted vote % / seat % examples there have ever been.
Maybe I’ll take that on.
Dave A

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From: Catherine Campbell
Sent: Tuesday, June 5, 2018 3:32 PM
To: David dirks; FVC Waterloo Region Discussion
Subject: Re: [fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford

Remember the federal general election of 1993. Two seats for the Progressive Conservatives despite all the PC voters across Canada. I can’t remember the PC percent of the popular vote. 

On Jun 5, 2018, at 2:51 PM, David dirks <daviddirks at rogers.com> wrote:
On a personal note, I have had people who would not otherwise talk of PR, speaking to me now in anticipation of the outcome.  W BC, PEI and PQ we may be able to move the needle in the future.

David

On Tuesday, June 5, 2018 2:48 PM, Jay Judkowitz <judkowitz at gmail.com> wrote:

This chart is horrifying.  From 20% of the vote down to <1% of seats is the most lopsided outcome I've ever seen.  Sure the Liberal leadership did this to themselves, but that does not change the terrible outcome for 20% of Ontario voters.  I hope it does not roll out this way, but hopefully, it (plus the almost certain failure of a Ford regime) can be used as a motivation for change.

On Tue, Jun 5, 2018 at 2:32 PM Evan Rosamond <erosamond at worldline.ca> wrote:
Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I think she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC (very large computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial Intelligence is cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, Poli's forecasts seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so maybe there's some accuracy there.

Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK because of something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no truth to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from Grenier's poll tracker this afternoon.
Party
Popular Vote 
Proportional Seats
Projected Seats
Power of a Vote
NDP
0.361
45
48
1.067
PC
0.376
47
74
1.574
Lib
0.199
25
2
0.080
Grn
0.050
6
0
0.000
Oth
0.014
2
0
0.000

1.000
124
124

The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote for each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly. But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of them won't count.

Evan

On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
Thank you Eleanor.  The interview is certainly enlightening & discouraging.  If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, some people will begin to understand that the electoral system delivered the Ford win, not the voters.  Cold comfort but may, in the long run, be helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral reform as an important necessity. 

Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's support in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's lawsuit be that issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate who is being accused of threatening 19 Tamils in his riding?  Or am I grasping desperately at straws?  

And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent elections?  Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable of late.

Hopefully yours,
Sharon

On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com> wrote:
Hello Fair Voters: 

Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda? She claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will still be a Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of the PC vote. People aren't grasping this! 

See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
 https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1 
It's a must-see. 

I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP is solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs. 

NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR. 

Eleanor 

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