[fvc-wat-disc] Even NDP win won't stop Ford

[Evan Rosamond]

Sharon, you are right about Erin Kelly's non-explanation of Poli. I 
think she's got a lot of virtual voters running around inside a VLC 
(very large computer), but I could be wrong. At any rate, Artificial 
Intelligence is cool, partly because nobody can understand it. However, 
Poli's forecasts seem to agree pretty closely with Eric Grenier's, so 
maybe there's some accuracy there.

Eleanor, yes we do need PR because of that 'efficiency' thing. I find 
the term misleading. It seems to make a case that odd results are OK 
because of something virtuous that the parties have done. There is no 
truth to that. Here's an explanation of efficiency using numbers from 
Grenier's poll tracker this afternoon.

_Party_ 	_Popular Vote _ 	_Proportional Seats_ 	_Projected Seats_ 
_Power of a Vote_
NDP 	0.361 	45 	48
	1.067
PC 	0.376 	47 	74 	1.574
Lib 	0.199 	25 	2
	0.080
Grn 	0.050 	6 	0 	0.000
Oth 	0.014 	2 	0 	0.000

	1.000 	124 	124 	


The Power of a Vote column is the ratio of Projected/Elected Seats to 
Proportional Seats. This represents the relative power of a single vote 
for each party. So the PCs stand to gain a 57% bonus. This is said to be 
efficient because PC votes are spread across the province fairly evenly. 
But look at the Liberals. They also have spread out votes, but 92% of 
them won't count.

Evan


On 6/4/2018 11:21 PM, Sharon Sommerville wrote:
> Thank you Eleanor.  The interview is certainly enlightening & 
> discouraging.  If this election produces a "Wrong winner" government, 
> some people will begin to understand that the electoral system 
> delivered the Ford win, not the voters.  Cold comfort but may, in the 
> long run, be helpful for some to finally recognize that electoral 
> reform as an important necessity.
>
> Ms. Kelly spoke about the kind of issue that might affect Ford's 
> support in the last 6 days of the election; could Renate Ford's 
> lawsuit be that issue? Perhaps in combination with the PC candidate 
> who is being accused of threatening 19 Tamils in his riding?  Or am I 
> grasping desperately at straws?
>
> And despite Ms. Kelly's explanation I don't understand how Poli works 
> and how accurate has Poli's projections proven to be in recent 
> elections?  Traditional polls have proven themselves to be unreliable 
> of late.
>
> Hopefully yours,
> Sharon
>
> On Mon, Jun 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM, Eleanor Grant <eleanor7000 at gmail.com 
> <mailto:eleanor7000 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
>     Hello Fair Voters:
>
>     Have you been watching poll analyst Erin Kelly on TVO The Agenda?
>     She claims that even if the NDP wins the popular vote, there will
>     still be a Ford majority of 20 seats because of the efficiency of
>     the PC vote. People aren't grasping this!
>
>     See if this link works for Erin's June 1 interview with Steve Paikin:
>     https://t.co/c2DI3YFzMw?amp=1
>     It's a must-see.
>
>     I'm imagining the rage Ontarians will feel Friday morning if NDP
>     is solidly ahead in popular vote but we're stuck with Ford for 4 yrs.
>
>     NDP would have to be 5+ points ahead of PCs to win. Why we need PR.
>
>     Eleanor
>
>
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